Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play

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elmicho danced with 33
we have 5 1

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Probably miniscule equity difference, but 15/10 13/12 keeps us even-ended while the other plays don't.  I try to stay even-ended unless there's a compelling reason to do otherwise.

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[Zorba]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by "even ended" here?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

If I understand correctly, the idea is if we need an even number of crossovers to bring our back men round, then 66 should play reasonably well - and if 66 does, almost everything else usually will. And as I remarked in the previous position, putting men on 12 and 10 means they will bear in to high positions with large numbers, setting us up for an easier start to the bearoff.

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[Zorba]

Thanks, makes sense!

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

If somebody wants to do enough trials to reach a  statistically significant result, be my guest.


XGID=abBBBBBB-----A-B-e--b--ad-:0:0:1:51:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X     X     O    |   |    O        O  O |
|       X     O    |   |    O           O |
|             O    |   |                O |
|             O    |   |                O |
|             O    |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  | O |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
|                X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 97  O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 51

    1. Rollout¹    15/9                         eq:+0.875
      Player:   93.77% (G:43.67% B:11.69%)
      Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [24.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    15/14 15/10                  eq:+0.875
      Player:   93.77% (G:43.95% B:12.07%)
      Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [21.7%]
      Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    15/10 13/12                  eq:+0.875
      Player:   93.77% (G:43.95% B:11.79%)
      Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [20.2%]
      Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    13/7                         eq:+0.875
      Player:   93.76% (G:43.43% B:11.63%)
      Opponent: 6.24% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [19.7%]
      Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    15/14 13/8                   eq:+0.875 (-0.001)
      Player:   93.75% (G:43.65% B:11.67%)
      Opponent: 6.25% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [14.4%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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