Question:
Move
Option 1: 15/3
votes: 1
Option 2: 15/9, 7/1
votes: 0
Option 3: 15/6, 7/4
votes: 3
Spoiler
No matter what we play, we're still in good shape unless he shakes a 61. So, what play looks best for us assuming he rolls 6-1? The ultra safe 15/6 7/4 leaves no guard to his runner, so I don't like that. If he escapes, I'd rather recirculate and have a shot at his homeboard blot. But slotting the ace point gives him too many numbers to hit us (I don't think intentionally forcing him to hit so that we can pick up another checker is thematic here.) By leaving the bar slotted we force him to hit to escape, making his one good roll backfire.
15/3
Quote from: ah_clem on April 16, 2011, 03:48:12 PM
Spoiler
If he escapes, I'd rather recirculate and have a shot at his homeboard blot. 15/3
Havent we enough back there already, without recirculating another?? I like getting the two forward safely into ta position suited to covering that ace, whilst leaving three back checkers to do battle...[/spoiler]
gnubg results
Spoiler
2-ply analysis says that slotting the ace point is a whopper with cheese, but the other two plays are very close.
I've started a 2-ply rollout and I'll post that when it's done.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 15/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.985
0.793 0.340 0.005 - 0.207 0.037 0.001
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 15/3 Eq.: +0.972 ( -0.013)
0.792 0.336 0.005 - 0.208 0.045 0.002
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 15/9 7/1 Eq.: +0.832 ( -0.152)
0.750 0.325 0.005 - 0.250 0.067 0.003
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2-ply rollout
Spoiler
Two ply gnubg rollout has the two moves dead even. Not just within the margin of error, but actually the same number. Might as well flip a coin.
I suppose this makes some sense, since they play the same unless gaspar rolls the 1 in 18 6-1 joker.
1. Rollout 15/3 Eq.: +0.980
0.792 0.339 0.004 - 0.208 0.048 0.004 CL +1.062 CF +0.980
[0.001 0.003 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881222205 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 15/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.980 ( -0.000)
0.791 0.334 0.005 - 0.209 0.041 0.003 CL +1.064 CF +0.980
[0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881222205 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]