A very strong double, even though factotum is not on the bar. We have several advantages in this game, and they do add up. In no particular order:
- race (on roll with 14 pips advantage =~ 10%, just a double in itself if it were a race)
- homeboard/prime: 6,5 and 2 made and the eightpoint for some extra blocking. no prime yet but well set up to create one. factotum has nothing.
- backcheckers: although we still have two backcheckers versus factotum's one, they are nicely split and don't face any threats or a blockade right now
- threats: many indirect shots at two outfield blots, a hit would also start escaping a backchecker, many loose hits at factotum's backchecker, some pointing numbers that make the fourth innerboard point, several great double rolls
Anybody who's not completely sure that this is a take, should double! (The famous
Woolsey doubling rule that can't be repeated often enough)
It looks like a clear pass to me, because factotum will lose a considerable amount of gammons as well and basically just has nothing going for him.
If you're absolutely sure this is a pass, you might consider playing on for the gammon. Is it safe here, to just take a roll? No, it's not at all. Consider a roll of 6-4, for instance. Not bad, we hit the outfield blot, escape the backman, get 10 extra pips with 24/14*. But what if factotum rolls 3-2 from the bar? He anchors and hits back. Can we still cash a point then? It seems clear that we can't, in fact it doesn't look like a double anymore, the 22pt anchor stabilizes a lot, and with us on the bar we don't threaten nearly as much as we do now.
Similar things happen if we hit loose 8/3* or 6/3*, and factotum hits back. In this case, factotum doesn't get the anchor, but he gains a lot of pips. Maybe we still have a double after some of these, but not cashes anymore. That means we're worth less than the full point we might get now by doubling.
Another good sequence for factotum might be when he rolls good doubles next turn, and gains back some of the initiative.
So, it's far from safe to play on for the gammon here, there are many sequences where factotum has a good take next turn which is costly, or where we don't even have a double anymore: very costly!
If we'd win an awful lot of gammons otherwise, it might still be correct to play on for the gammon, as a sort of gamble for two points instead of one, with the risk of losing one or more points occasionally. Here, we still need quite a lot to happen before we can really claim a gammon, so this doens't look like a good gamble.
Last but not least: suppose factotum will take our cube, while it's actually too good.
Yummy!!!So, as a slight modification of the Woolsey Rule, you could say: if you're not absolutely sure it's a stonecold pass, DOUBLE and even if you are, if you're not absolutely sure it's too good to double: DOUBLE.