FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM2 => Topic started by: Zorba on August 10, 2009, 11:20:47 AM
The Forum played their ugly 2-1 15/13 8/7, now it's roadkillbooks (white) to play 4-1:
21jgBAOMM3gGAw:AQGmACAAAAAA
Please, Brer Roadkill, don't throw us in that briar patch.
Bob
:laugh: :laugh: I wonder if he will!
Spoiler
hard to know what to do with this - the hit seems so awful, that moving 13-8 seems better!!
A quite sorry roll I guess all that means is that its on the lower half of preferred rolls. I definitely wanted to hit. The hit here however is not strong. I leave 2 blots and i havent counted but there are a lot of return shots and my board is considerably weaker than the forums right now. This will not be the last chance for a hit in this situation. Finally unstacking and adding a builder to my forever stripped 8 point seems like a constructive thing to do. My 8 point has been stripped since I desperately covered it a month ago. The hit seems a bit desperate. Over the board it's an easy play to do when on gets caught in the flow of the game and is thinking...HIT...HIT...HIT. Each move is a new opportunity though.
13/8
GnuBG 4-ply:
Spoiler
Definitely right to shun the hit here. If you look at the w/g/bg breakdown, you see hitting does not win more games than simply playing 13/8. It does however lose an extra 6.5% gammons, which makes it a Whopper to hit.
1. Cubeful 4-ply 13/8 Eq.: -0,0607
47,99 11,14 0,22 - 52,01 13,25 0,20
4-ply cubeful prune
2. Cubeful 4-ply 15/10* Eq.: -0,1583 ( -0,0976)
47,92 10,69 0,24 - 52,08 19,85 0,54
4-ply cubeful prune