Quote from: dorbel on September 01, 2009, 09:40:23 AMLots of votes to make the bar here, but it is wrong. 13/4 is the play. Typically, you don't want to make points that you will have to clear later and it is worth taking a small risk now to avoid later problems. That's enough to justify 13/4 on its own, but there is more. If we can pick up another checker on the way home it has to increase our gammon chances. 13/7, 10/7 is an awful play!
Quote from: dorbel on September 01, 2009, 06:00:18 PM
Why are we so worried about fly shots? White's board is in poor shape and unlikely to improve soon, so even being hit with a fly shot and dancing (8.25% x 44% = 3.3%!) is hardly a disaster. Even so, it is a small risk so why take it? Partly of course to try and pick up another checker, but mainly because clearing the bar without any spares is trickier than you might think. All the twos play badly (check through them for yourself) and all the ones stack a spare on the 6pt, delaying the time when we can safely clear that.
This problem more often occurs in the form where you still have an outfield point to clear. If you make the bar point here, how do you play 4-2 if White stays on the bar? Clearly it is correct to play 7/1 and risk the indirect and in this slightly different form it is correct here too. Of course we may never throw a number that involves any risk at all, but you can't rely on that. Taking very small risks while the opponent is still on the bar pays dividends.
Quote from: ah_clem on September 03, 2009, 12:53:11 PM
gnubg results:Spoiler
Despite getting it wrong, I don't feel too bad about picking the inferior move - it leaves us a better than 95% chance of winning and a better than 50% chance of gammon and I'll take that any day.[close]
Quote from: diane on September 03, 2009, 02:29:08 PMWell, you get to see what the analysis or evaluation picks as best, which is not always the same move as the rollout. In particular, in this position with the score flipped to us leading 2-0 the analysis chooses to make the bar point while the rollout still opts for 13/4.
I found this very interesting too...in all the cases where I have set up the poll, I have had to use gnu hint to make sure I covered all the options - and in doing that you see which move it picks as best.
Quote from: ah_clem on September 03, 2009, 04:34:42 PMSpoiler
Well, you get to see what the analysis or evaluation picks as best, which is not always the same move as the rollout. In particular, in this position with the score flipped to us leading 2-0 the analysis chooses to make the bar point while the rollout still opts for 13/4.[close]