Ok, rkb in white, to move 5-2
4LsNAwLgu00AAw:MIGqACAAEAAA
I take back all my complaints about you rolling the dice. (c:
Welcome back.
Quote from: ah_clem on September 17, 2009, 01:38:08 PM
I take back all my complaints about you rolling the dice. (c:
Welcome back.
:blushsmiley:
:hm: what does he want? :dontknow:
oh well, it is nice to feel wanted :veryhappy: :veryhappy:
I doubt if he was doubling, but perhaps you should have asked. He's a favourite with some gammon chances and it's 3-away, 3-away, where aggressive doubling pays.
how did our last move lead to us having 2 back? me no understand where we are?
before moving last we were (blk going a'clockwise) then we chose 24/20 8/7
Quote from: dorbel on September 17, 2009, 02:24:45 PM
I doubt if he was doubling, but perhaps you should have asked. He's a favourite with some gammon chances and it's 3-away, 3-away, where aggressive doubling pays.
Yeah, I would've considered cubing here very strongly. What does gnu say on this? That being said, good roll diane!
Quote from: stog on September 17, 2009, 02:34:37 PM
how did our last move lead to us having 2 back? me no understand where we are?
before moving last we were (blk going a'clockwise) then we chose 24/20 8/7
these are rkb's men...its exactly the same position as yours, only directions are swapped
ok thx -- couldnt see it b4
Quote from: lewscannon on September 17, 2009, 02:41:08 PM
Yeah, I would've considered cubing here very strongly. What does gnu say on this? That being said, good roll diane!
I punched it into gnubg this morning before leaving for work. The analysis had our chosen move as best giving us about a 45% chance of winning. That's not a double for rkb. It wasn't even a double for my choice of move, which was about a .8 error.
I'll post the rollout as soon as I return home. There seemed to be
8 10 candidate moves, so the rollout took longer than usual....
UPDATE: Rollout. Cubing is a double whopper.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.286 (Money: +0.246)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.414
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.586)
3. Double, take +0.165 ( -0.249)
Proper cube action: No double, take (29.8%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.578 0.146 0.007 - 0.422 0.060 0.003 CL +0.286 CF +0.414
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.013]
Player You owns 2-cube:
0.580 0.155 0.008 - 0.420 0.089 0.006 CL +0.723 CF +0.165
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.001 CL 0.014 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865816185 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
I was not going to double since I knew a 5 was coming. If I could have know for sure that I wasnt going to get a five.. Im sure doubling would have been correct ;).
Well here I see 3 main candidate plays: a- I could play safe with something like 11/4
b- I can play hit an stack with 11/6, 7/5* hit
c- I could hit and unstack/double blot with 7/5* hit, 6/1
a- I don't like the safe play here. Forum is only a 5 or 6 away from putting me into a 5 point holding game and I think my position deserves more than that. Though on the positive side if forum doesn't get a 5 or 6 Id be strong again. One tactic passive but possibly correct.
Hitting on the 5 point when I control forum's 5 point looks like a must. Although many times errors are made because your expecting to hit and point... then a bad number comes up and the game plan stays the same.
Here the two main hitting plays (excluding a premature break of my anchor are b and c. Sometimes I like the hit, unstack, double blot type plays. I think that if forum had a 3 point prime with like the one point made instead, that play might be right. Here I think it seems to lead to too many bad numbers.
So Id go for the aesthetically unpleasing 7/5*, 13/6
Even 5/1 would have been better for me playing it 11/5*
Quote from: roadkillbooks on September 17, 2009, 06:05:40 PM
So Id go for the aesthetically unpleasing 7/5*, 13/6
Even 5/1 would have been better for me playing it 11/5*
I am gonna go out on a limb and assume you mean
7/5, 11/6 :wacko:
RKB finds the best play here, even with that horrible distribution! I would have tried 11/4, a small error, while Snowie 3-ply will play 7/5*, 6/1! However, a short rollout supports the match play, showing that hitting is still correct even when it leaves a position that is almost unplayable.