Quote from: dorbel on October 19, 2009, 09:55:53 AM
Ah Clem doesn't say why 24/23 is so bad. It is an anchor, always handy when behind and it's a better anchor than the 24pt. However, I agree that we can find a better 1 somewhere else so early in the game. I don't mind 13/8, 6/5, but it leaves the three checkers at the back somewhat isolated. We might try 24/18, bidding to make it next turn or at least exchange hits there, but I would try 23/18, 6/5! It keeps the anchor so we can't be blown away and although one of these blots is going to get hit, we get return shots and may even be able to steal one of the points with a good number from the bar. We can't be doubled out and don't much care if we get stuck with a gammonish game, so now is an opportunity, perhaps the last that we will get, to make a big leap forward.
I trying to remember where I read it (but I can't at the moment), so here's what I recall about the deuce point: it's a deep anchor that doesn't provide much outfield coverage, can easily be primed, and usually already faces an opponent's point 6 points away on the eight. This adds up to the two point being not much better than the ace point. Unless you're just looking for a place to waste a 1-roll, switching points from the ace to the deuce doesn't accomplish much.
By contrast, the 3 point observes the 9 point giving better outfield control and is harder to prime. It's a much better point to hold than the deuce.
If we didn't have the ace point already, making the deuce-point would make sense. In this position and at this match score making the deuce seems wrong - it's too passive. A deuce point game is a recipe for losing a single point (i.e. it prevents you from losing a gammon, but provides little winning advantage). That's not what we want to do here.
Gammons don't count. We're 30 pips behind. We need to make something
happen, not play conservatively and lose a single point. Hit his blot, slot a useful point or two. Dorbel's suggestions all accomplish this although I'm leery of moving to the opponent's bar point - too many checkers bearing down on it with the option to hit loose. I'm not sure which action play is best, but
something has to be better than the passive play.