Quote from: dorbel on October 29, 2009, 07:26:29 AM
Another tough play, which highlights the good play made by rkb last turn. Had he stayed back passively, we wouldn't have had a problem. Not hitting might be right, as there are 20 (!) rolls for White that leave a direct shot next turn, in addition to 5-2 and 4-3 which leave two indirects. If we choose not to hit, then we play 9/4, 6/5, or possibly 8/3, 6/5. I know that that leaves a shot but it is very creative! I wouldn't argue much against either play if a partner was hot for the quiet approach, but waiting looks too passive to me and I think that we bite the bullet and go for it. I prefer 13/7* to 9/4, 8/7*. It's only two extra return shots, for which we get an extra checker into the zone, more covers for the 5pt and the bar slotted. It does expose four blots and raise the awful spectre of a match-losing backgammon, but that's a long way off yet.
I'll have to take your word on the non-hitting plays. They just seem weak and ineffectual to me.
As for choosing which hitting play to make, you have a very good point. 13/7* leaves us in a more flexible position as long as we're not hit. It only adds 6-3 as hitting numbers vs. the play I suggested (5-4 already hits, and four checkers back isn't much worse than three, possible it's stronger) Is the additional flexibility worth the extra risk?
I'm not seeing that it's clearly worth it. It might be, but let's assume he enters on the three and doesn't hit anything - with my play I've got 5 points with spares or blots. that bear on his blot. That should be enough to clobber him again. If he enters on the one or two point, the blot on the 9 is out of reach for hitting. Granted, it's well poised to fill in the prime.... maybe that's the key - I'm thinking hit hit hit, while you're thinking prime. And given the layout of his side of the board, our best chances are to have his runner stuck behind a prime rather than stuck on the bar.
So, I need to reevaluate the position in terms of prime-making plays rather than pointing on the runner. For that, leaving a checker on the 9 is stronger. Moving it to the four when the 5 and bar points are not made is anti-thematic.
Ok. You've convinced me. Appologies for thinking out loud, but sometimes that's what I need to do. I'm going to change my vote to 13/7*.