Question:
Move?
Option 1: 8/2, 8/6
votes: 7
Option 2: 8/2, 5/3
votes: 4
Option 3: 24/16
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/2, 4/2
votes: 0
Option 5: 8/6, 7/1
votes: 0
Spoiler
We want to hold the ace point until the bitter end. So, slot the point adjacent to the prime with 8/2. Where we play the 2 probably doesn't matter much. I'm going for 8/6, but 5/3 is probable about as good.
8/2 8/6
Spoiler
Thinking about this further....
Our best chance to win is to hold the ace point as long as possible. By leaving a checker on the 8 we get one more 6 to play before we have to run a backman. I think this outweighs the chances of a fly shot from the bar on the 8.
So, I'm changing my vote to 8/2 5/3. I still don't expect that there's a big difference....
rollout
Spoiler
Statistical tie. No need to waste many brain cell over this one. Even a "weird" move like 8/2 4/2 is within the margin of error.
1. Rollout 8/6 8/2 Eq.: -0.827
0.109 0.000 0.000 - 0.891 0.457 0.009 CL -0.827 CF -0.827
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
2. Rollout 8/2 5/3 Eq.: -0.831 ( -0.003)
0.109 0.000 0.000 - 0.891 0.486 0.009 CL -0.831 CF -0.831
[0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
3. Rollout 8/2 4/2 Eq.: -0.837 ( -0.009)
0.106 0.000 0.000 - 0.894 0.479 0.009 CL -0.837 CF -0.837
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
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