Quote from: diane on December 17, 2009, 08:05:21 AM
23/21, 6/2
Can someone tell me why that is a bad idea ;)
Breaking the closed board is a blunder. Schig will be forced to leave a shot with any roll other than doubles, 21, 23, and 35, and these last two give him such a terrible homeboard that he might look elsewhere if he rolls one of those. If we can hit a shot with a closed board we're almost certain to win (not sure at this point if it would be too good to cash - I'll make that call when the time comes. ) - a shot with a blot on our 6 still gives him about a 1/3 chance to enter and hit. I see our equity plummeting with a broken board.
The theme has been to hang back, build the board and wait for a shot or big running numbers. Disturbing the board that we worked so hard to build undermines the basic theme of the situation, and by opening our 5 or 6 point we make it really hard to contain a checker if we send it back. Absent some immediate practical, tactical consideration here, I think preserving the board is priority one.
I'd be amenable to moving the runner up
if there was a way to do so without leaving a second shot or breaking the board - after all, it does guard the outfield better from the 20. But that's not worth breaking the board or leaving a shot on the midpoint.