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Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 5 => Topic started by: Zorba on June 22, 2010, 12:23:49 PM

Poll
Question: 2-1 from the bar?
Option 1: B/24 13/11 votes: 0
Option 2: B/24 8/6 votes: 7
Option 3: B/23 8/7 votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 8, Herd to play 2-1
Post by: Zorba on June 22, 2010, 12:23:49 PM
dorbel pointed on us 8/3* 5/3
The Herd rolls a 2-1 from the bar

XGID=----aBB-D-B-eC-a-a-cbAb--A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: zE7iAwSwecYBQg:cImoAAAAAAAA
Title: Re: Game 1, move 7, Herd to play 2-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 22, 2010, 01:08:27 PM
Spoiler
Leaving more blots is not a good idea, and entering on the 23 puts it in range of the builder on the 17.  So enter with the one bar/24 and unstack the 8 with 8/6.  

Slotting with 8/7 is intriguing, but seems too risky.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 7, Herd to play 2-1
Post by: Zorba on June 24, 2010, 02:08:46 AM
XG rollout:

Spoiler

Pretty clear:

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/24 8/6                   eq:-0,465
      Player  : 40,31% (G:10,13% B:0,64%)
      Opponent: 59,69% (G:22,47% B:1,11%)
      Confidence: ± 0,012 (-0,477<E<-0,453)
      Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/24 13/11                 eq:-0,539 (-0,074)
      Player  : 39,12% (G:9,68% B:0,61%)
      Opponent: 60,88% (G:24,81% B:1,55%)
      Confidence: ± 0,013 (-0,552<E<-0,526)
      Duration: 13 minutes 52 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    Bar/23 8/7                   eq:-0,558 (-0,093)
      Player  : 38,99% (G:9,08% B:0,86%)
      Opponent: 61,01% (G:26,35% B:2,01%)
      Confidence: ± 0,018 (-0,576<E<-0,540)
      Duration: 18 minutes 00 second


¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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