Poll
The obvious move is to enter and make the golden point. The problem with that is the 5-1 combo is about the worst backgame structure, and it does nothing aggressive on the attacking side of the board. Otoh, we're not in a backgame yet; its the lack of initiative that makes me want to look for something else.
We could hit again, but now we have one less checker in the zone. I didn't like hitting before and I like it even less now. Nah.
I like bringing in another builder and going for the prime. bar/20 13/9. Good mobility, and it slots the prime. I'm not sure this is better than the prosaic bar 20 24/20, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
socksey
Remember that the most beautiful things in the world are the most useless; peacocks and lilies for instance. - John Ruskin
Question: 
Herd to play 5-4?
Herd to play 5-4?
Option 1: B/16
votes: 0
Option 2: B/21 13/8
votes: 0
Option 3: B/20 24/20
votes: 5
Option 4: B/20 13/9
votes: 1
Option 5: B/20 6/2*
votes: 3
Title: Game 2, move 3, Herd to play 5-4
Post by: Zorba on July 12, 2010, 10:43:14 PM
Post by: Zorba on July 12, 2010, 10:43:14 PM
The Herd played B/24 6/2* last time, dorbel rolled a 2-6 from the bar to enter one, and hit B/23*. Now it's the Herd to play 5-4 from the bar:
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-5-83/game-2-move-3-herd-to-play-5-4/?action=dlattach;attach=4794;image)
XGID=a-a---DAB---dD---d-e----CA:0:0:1:54:0:4:1:5:10
GNUBg Id: 4PPgAUjgNXgAXA:8Am2AEAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-5-83/game-2-move-3-herd-to-play-5-4/?action=dlattach;attach=4794;image)
XGID=a-a---DAB---dD---d-e----CA:0:0:1:54:0:4:1:5:10
GNUBg Id: 4PPgAUjgNXgAXA:8Am2AEAAAAAA
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3, Herd to play 5-4
Post by: ah_clem on July 12, 2010, 11:26:23 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 12, 2010, 11:26:23 PM
Spoiler
The obvious move is to enter and make the golden point. The problem with that is the 5-1 combo is about the worst backgame structure, and it does nothing aggressive on the attacking side of the board. Otoh, we're not in a backgame yet; its the lack of initiative that makes me want to look for something else.
We could hit again, but now we have one less checker in the zone. I didn't like hitting before and I like it even less now. Nah.
I like bringing in another builder and going for the prime. bar/20 13/9. Good mobility, and it slots the prime. I'm not sure this is better than the prosaic bar 20 24/20, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3, Herd to play 5-4
Post by: socksey on July 13, 2010, 02:29:24 AM
Post by: socksey on July 13, 2010, 02:29:24 AM
Spoiler
I like bar/20, 6/2 for the reason "what do we have to lose?" We are as likely to be hit leaving the 2 pt shot as we are leaving the 7 pt shot or any other, so I think we should be agressive and go for broke. :yes: We still have the possibility of a backgame in the making.
[close]
socksey
Remember that the most beautiful things in the world are the most useless; peacocks and lilies for instance. - John Ruskin
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3, Herd to play 5-4
Post by: ah_clem on July 14, 2010, 01:17:58 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 14, 2010, 01:17:58 PM
rollout
Obviously, the obvious move is obviously correct.
Bringing down a builder is a .06 error. Hitting is a .09 error.
1. Rollout bar/20 24/20 Eq.: -0.020
0.484 0.115 0.004 - 0.516 0.280 0.056 CL -0.020 CF -0.020
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.005 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
2. Rollout bar/20 13/9 Eq.: -0.081 ( -0.061)
0.453 0.107 0.006 - 0.547 0.328 0.103 CL -0.081 CF -0.081
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
3. Rollout bar/21 13/8 Eq.: -0.106 ( -0.086)
0.442 0.104 0.004 - 0.558 0.314 0.091 CL -0.106 CF -0.106
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
4. Rollout bar/20 6/2* Eq.: -0.110 ( -0.090)
0.439 0.107 0.004 - 0.561 0.326 0.106 CL -0.110 CF -0.110
[0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.007 0.007 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
5. Rollout bar/16 Eq.: -0.118 ( -0.098)
0.436 0.092 0.004 - 0.564 0.342 0.109 CL -0.118 CF -0.118
[0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.008 0.007 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891081141 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Obviously, the obvious move is obviously correct.
Bringing down a builder is a .06 error. Hitting is a .09 error.
1. Rollout bar/20 24/20 Eq.: -0.020
0.484 0.115 0.004 - 0.516 0.280 0.056 CL -0.020 CF -0.020
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.005 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
2. Rollout bar/20 13/9 Eq.: -0.081 ( -0.061)
0.453 0.107 0.006 - 0.547 0.328 0.103 CL -0.081 CF -0.081
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
3. Rollout bar/21 13/8 Eq.: -0.106 ( -0.086)
0.442 0.104 0.004 - 0.558 0.314 0.091 CL -0.106 CF -0.106
[0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
4. Rollout bar/20 6/2* Eq.: -0.110 ( -0.090)
0.439 0.107 0.004 - 0.561 0.326 0.106 CL -0.110 CF -0.110
[0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.007 0.007 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
5. Rollout bar/16 Eq.: -0.118 ( -0.098)
0.436 0.092 0.004 - 0.564 0.342 0.109 CL -0.118 CF -0.118
[0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.008 0.007 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891081141 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]