Poll
If we were behind in the match, I'd hit loose with 15/9 6/3*. At 2-0 I'm more cautious, so I'm going to vote for playing it safe with 15/6. Yes, this makes two ugly candlesticks, but I don't like the look of his zone so I don't want to be hit. I wish there was a more flexible play, but I'm not seeing it.
Actually, I think 15/9 6/3* has much to recommend it - we're probably going to leave a blot anyway before long, and doing it now with his poor board and blot on the 5 makes some sense. I just don't have the cojones to vote for it, but I could have my courage bolstered by the right argument. Anyone?
Question: 6-3 again
Option 1: 15/6
votes: 7
Option 2: 15/9 13/10
votes: 1
Option 3: 15/9 6/3*
votes: 2
Option 4: 13/4
votes: 0
Option 5: 13/7 6/3*
votes: 0
Title: Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 05:33:06 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 05:33:06 PM
We roll another 6-3
Title: Re: Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 05:48:13 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 05:48:13 PM
Spoiler
If we were behind in the match, I'd hit loose with 15/9 6/3*. At 2-0 I'm more cautious, so I'm going to vote for playing it safe with 15/6. Yes, this makes two ugly candlesticks, but I don't like the look of his zone so I don't want to be hit. I wish there was a more flexible play, but I'm not seeing it.
Actually, I think 15/9 6/3* has much to recommend it - we're probably going to leave a blot anyway before long, and doing it now with his poor board and blot on the 5 makes some sense. I just don't have the cojones to vote for it, but I could have my courage bolstered by the right argument. Anyone?
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 07:16:54 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 07:16:54 PM
Playing around with the display settings in gnubg to get a better looking picture.
Title: Re: Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 29, 2010, 04:30:02 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 29, 2010, 04:30:02 PM
About an hour left in the voting...
Title: Re: Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 30, 2010, 03:08:29 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 30, 2010, 03:08:29 AM
rollout
The Herd's choice is best. Everything else is a whopper.
1. Rollout 15/6 Eq.: +0.395
0.601 0.107 0.005 - 0.399 0.078 0.002 CL +0.231 CF +0.395
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
2. Rollout 13/4 Eq.: +0.296 ( -0.099)
0.581 0.118 0.014 - 0.419 0.091 0.003 CL +0.174 CF +0.296
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
3. Rollout 15/9 13/10 Eq.: +0.259 ( -0.136)
0.576 0.130 0.013 - 0.424 0.111 0.003 CL +0.159 CF +0.259
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
4. Rollout 15/9 6/3* Eq.: +0.252 ( -0.144)
0.577 0.151 0.015 - 0.423 0.121 0.004 CL +0.153 CF +0.252
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
The Herd's choice is best. Everything else is a whopper.
1. Rollout 15/6 Eq.: +0.395
0.601 0.107 0.005 - 0.399 0.078 0.002 CL +0.231 CF +0.395
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
2. Rollout 13/4 Eq.: +0.296 ( -0.099)
0.581 0.118 0.014 - 0.419 0.091 0.003 CL +0.174 CF +0.296
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
3. Rollout 15/9 13/10 Eq.: +0.259 ( -0.136)
0.576 0.130 0.013 - 0.424 0.111 0.003 CL +0.159 CF +0.259
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
4. Rollout 15/9 6/3* Eq.: +0.252 ( -0.144)
0.577 0.151 0.015 - 0.423 0.121 0.004 CL +0.153 CF +0.252
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]