Poll
At this score I'm going to advocate playing it safe with 21/13. Were gammons any good for us I'd play the more aggressive 13/7 13/10. But here we're just trying to win a single point and avoid gammons; after this play we've escaped one of our runners and have a homeboard point while he's got three men back and no development. I'll take that.
Question: 6-2?
Option 1: 21/13
votes: 6
Option 2: 21/15 20/18
votes: 0
Option 3: 21/15 13/11
votes: 0
Option 4: 20/14 13/11
votes: 1
Option 5: 20/18 13/7
votes: 0
Option 6: 13/7 13/10
votes: 0
Title: Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 02:46:26 AM
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 02:46:26 AM
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-5-move-3-the-herd-to-play-6-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5373;image)
Zorba danced with an ill timed 6-6. We have a 6-2 to play.
Zorba danced with an ill timed 6-6. We have a 6-2 to play.
Title: Re: Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 02:53:33 AM
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 02:53:33 AM
Spoiler
At this score I'm going to advocate playing it safe with 21/13. Were gammons any good for us I'd play the more aggressive 13/7 13/10. But here we're just trying to win a single point and avoid gammons; after this play we've escaped one of our runners and have a homeboard point while he's got three men back and no development. I'll take that.
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Title: Re: Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2
Post by: stiefnu on November 28, 2010, 01:15:44 PM
Post by: stiefnu on November 28, 2010, 01:15:44 PM
Spoiler
I'm outvoted already but, with time to think about it, seeing as he has one on the bar, I see sense in coming down to the 11-pt, then duping his 2s with a run to our 14-pt, so 13/11, 20/14. Not that I'd ever have considered this over the board - with a clock ticking (or an impatient fibster urging me on!), the running play would be the obvious move.
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Title: Re: Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 09:50:25 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 28, 2010, 09:50:25 PM
With the vote standing at 6-1 I'm going to call it. Rollout to come...
Title: Re: Game 5 Move 3 the Herd to play 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on November 29, 2010, 06:15:26 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 29, 2010, 06:15:26 PM
rollout
gnubg 0-ply likes the more aggressive play 20/14 13/11. The Herd's choice is within the margin of error.
1. Rollout 20/14 13/11 Eq.: +0.126
0.642 0.357 0.096 - 0.358 0.079 0.006 CL +0.126 CF +0.126
[0.004 0.008 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
2. Rollout 21/13 Eq.: +0.115 ( -0.011)
0.639 0.321 0.064 - 0.361 0.081 0.011 CL +0.115 CF +0.115
[0.003 0.007 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
3. Rollout 21/15 13/11 Eq.: +0.109 ( -0.016)
0.636 0.337 0.077 - 0.364 0.081 0.007 CL +0.109 CF +0.109
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
4. Rollout 13/11 13/7 Eq.: +0.073 ( -0.053)
0.617 0.341 0.089 - 0.383 0.080 0.015 CL +0.073 CF +0.073
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.002 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
gnubg 0-ply likes the more aggressive play 20/14 13/11. The Herd's choice is within the margin of error.
1. Rollout 20/14 13/11 Eq.: +0.126
0.642 0.357 0.096 - 0.358 0.079 0.006 CL +0.126 CF +0.126
[0.004 0.008 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
2. Rollout 21/13 Eq.: +0.115 ( -0.011)
0.639 0.321 0.064 - 0.361 0.081 0.011 CL +0.115 CF +0.115
[0.003 0.007 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
3. Rollout 21/15 13/11 Eq.: +0.109 ( -0.016)
0.636 0.337 0.077 - 0.364 0.081 0.007 CL +0.109 CF +0.109
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
4. Rollout 13/11 13/7 Eq.: +0.073 ( -0.053)
0.617 0.341 0.089 - 0.383 0.080 0.015 CL +0.073 CF +0.073
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.002 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]