(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-5-move-4-the-herd-to-play-6-1/?action=dlattach;attach=5377;image)
Z rolled a 5-4 and it was obvious to make the golden point. We've got a 6-1 to play.
Spoiler
Seems to me that it's high time to make another point. Playing it safe is one thing, but 7 checkers on the midpoint is a bit too "safe" (actualy it's less safe since it's so inflexible.) And I don't see the advantage in hitting looseon the ace point. Make the bar point.
rollout
Spoiler
gnu 0-ply likes the running play over making the bar point, but it's within the margin of error. I'm doing a 2-ply rollout and will post results when it's done.
1. Rollout 20/13 Eq.: +0.103
0.634 0.245 0.017 - 0.366 0.082 0.006 CL +0.103 CF +0.103
[0.003 0.007 0.003 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
2. Rollout 13/7 8/7 Eq.: +0.094 ( -0.010)
0.630 0.274 0.033 - 0.370 0.083 0.006 CL +0.094 CF +0.094
[0.002 0.007 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
3. Rollout 13/6 Eq.: -0.047 ( -0.151)
0.586 0.279 0.031 - 0.414 0.110 0.006 CL -0.047 CF -0.047
[0.002 0.007 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
4. Rollout 8/1* Eq.: -0.107 ( -0.211)
0.561 0.231 0.019 - 0.439 0.114 0.010 CL -0.107 CF -0.107
[0.002 0.007 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
2- ply rollout
Spoiler
2-ply rollout gives basically the same result. Running is better, but our choice is within the margin of error.
On the previous roll Z had a checker on the bar and the right move was the bold move but the Herd chose the safe one. Now, with Z able to use both halves of his roll, the right move is the safe move, but the Herd chose the bolder move. Neither are big errors, but there's a lesson here I reckon.
1. Rollout 20/13 Eq.: +0.084
0.629 0.222 0.018 - 0.371 0.087 0.008 CL +0.084 CF +0.084
[0.002 0.008 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
2. Rollout 13/7 8/7 Eq.: +0.077 ( -0.006)
0.626 0.260 0.039 - 0.374 0.087 0.006 CL +0.077 CF +0.077
[0.002 0.008 0.004 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]