Poll
I hate to bury a checker on our ace point, but the other alternatives are worse. Playing from the 7 breaks our blockade (and still buries a checker), and playing from the fourteen almost guarantees that we'll have 5 men stuck behind a 5-prime (any 2, 3, or 6 hits). Given the strength of his blockade, I don't think recirculating checkers is wise.
Question: Move?
Option 1: Bar/22, 14/9
votes: 0
Option 2: Bar/22, 7/2
votes: 0
Option 3: Bar/22, 6/1
votes: 6
Title: Game 3, move 9: Herd 5-3
Post by: diane on January 11, 2011, 06:42:56 AM
Post by: diane on January 11, 2011, 06:42:56 AM
sG1DAwzYbsAAWg:UYm1AAAAGAAA
file posted below for clem to have fun with ;)
(http://www.fibsboard.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3758.0;attach=5606;image)
file posted below for clem to have fun with ;)
(http://www.fibsboard.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3758.0;attach=5606;image)
Title: Re: Game 3, move 9: Herd 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on January 11, 2011, 02:39:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 11, 2011, 02:39:27 PM
Spoiler
I hate to bury a checker on our ace point, but the other alternatives are worse. Playing from the 7 breaks our blockade (and still buries a checker), and playing from the fourteen almost guarantees that we'll have 5 men stuck behind a 5-prime (any 2, 3, or 6 hits). Given the strength of his blockade, I don't think recirculating checkers is wise.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3, move 9: Herd 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on January 12, 2011, 05:52:35 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 12, 2011, 05:52:35 PM
rollout
The Herd's choice comes out on top, but playing off the 7 is surprisingly within the margin of error.
1. Rollout bar/22 6/1 Eq.: -1.033
0.213 0.065 0.007 - 0.787 0.307 0.023 CL -1.033 CF -1.033
[0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
2. Rollout bar/22 7/2 Eq.: -1.041 ( -0.008)
0.221 0.076 0.008 - 0.779 0.321 0.027 CL -1.041 CF -1.041
[0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
3. Rollout bar/22 14/9 Eq.: -1.149 ( -0.116)
0.191 0.044 0.006 - 0.809 0.358 0.025 CL -1.149 CF -1.149
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.011 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872503493 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
The Herd's choice comes out on top, but playing off the 7 is surprisingly within the margin of error.
1. Rollout bar/22 6/1 Eq.: -1.033
0.213 0.065 0.007 - 0.787 0.307 0.023 CL -1.033 CF -1.033
[0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
2. Rollout bar/22 7/2 Eq.: -1.041 ( -0.008)
0.221 0.076 0.008 - 0.779 0.321 0.027 CL -1.041 CF -1.041
[0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
3. Rollout bar/22 14/9 Eq.: -1.149 ( -0.116)
0.191 0.044 0.006 - 0.809 0.358 0.025 CL -1.149 CF -1.149
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL 0.011 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872503493 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]