Poll
Our take point leading 2-away 3-away is 26%. Do we win 26% here? Seems like a slam dunk.
What about gammons? We lose a few and they are costly, but I don't see this as being particularly gammonish. Take.
Question: Move 
Option 1: Take
votes: 4
Option 2: Drop
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 2: Herd take decision
Post by: diane on February 06, 2011, 07:44:40 PM
Post by: diane on February 06, 2011, 07:44:40 PM
Position ID: 4HPhASKwZ/ABMA
Match ID: MBmgACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-2-herd-take-decision/?action=dlattach;attach=5724;image)
Match ID: MBmgACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-2-herd-take-decision/?action=dlattach;attach=5724;image)
Title: Re: Game 4, move 2: Herd take decision
Post by: ah_clem on February 07, 2011, 04:51:09 PM
Post by: ah_clem on February 07, 2011, 04:51:09 PM
Spoiler
Our take point leading 2-away 3-away is 26%. Do we win 26% here? Seems like a slam dunk.
What about gammons? We lose a few and they are costly, but I don't see this as being particularly gammonish. Take.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 2: Herd take decision
Post by: ah_clem on February 08, 2011, 12:00:17 AM
Post by: ah_clem on February 08, 2011, 12:00:17 AM
rollout
Short answer: double, massive take.
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.662
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.338)
3. No double +0.615 ( -0.048)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.580 0.185 0.022 - 0.420 0.142 0.019 CL +0.303 CF +0.615
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
0.581 0.190 0.035 - 0.419 0.156 0.027 CL +0.662 CF +0.662
[0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.005 0.003 CL 0.019 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880235836 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Short answer: double, massive take.
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.662
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.338)
3. No double +0.615 ( -0.048)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.580 0.185 0.022 - 0.420 0.142 0.019 CL +0.303 CF +0.615
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
0.581 0.190 0.035 - 0.419 0.156 0.027 CL +0.662 CF +0.662
[0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.005 0.003 CL 0.019 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880235836 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]