Poll
I don't think volunteering a shot here is the right idea. But we'll probably be leaving a shot soon anyway, so holding the anchor is valuable. I don't like playing behind his anchor, but it seems like the best move is to play two off the eight point. At least we're slotting the next good homeboard point.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/7, 13/8
votes: 0
Option 2: 21/10
votes: 1
Option 3: 13/2
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/2, 8/3
votes: 5
Option 5: 8/2, 6/1
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 9: Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on February 17, 2011, 01:16:17 AM
Post by: diane on February 17, 2011, 01:16:17 AM
There were a couple of obvious moves, so I moved along - now a much trickier herd move...
move 8 Herd, 6-1, 13/6
move 9 skater 5-1, 13/7
Position ID: NtuBAQbMPoMBBg
Match ID: UYm6ACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-9-herd-6-5/?action=dlattach;attach=5760;image)
move 8 Herd, 6-1, 13/6
move 9 skater 5-1, 13/7
Position ID: NtuBAQbMPoMBBg
Match ID: UYm6ACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-9-herd-6-5/?action=dlattach;attach=5760;image)
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on February 17, 2011, 02:47:19 AM
Post by: ah_clem on February 17, 2011, 02:47:19 AM
Spoiler
I don't think volunteering a shot here is the right idea. But we'll probably be leaving a shot soon anyway, so holding the anchor is valuable. I don't like playing behind his anchor, but it seems like the best move is to play two off the eight point. At least we're slotting the next good homeboard point.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on February 17, 2011, 11:57:59 PM
Post by: ah_clem on February 17, 2011, 11:57:59 PM
gnubg results
2-ply analysis agrees with the Herd. Bringing down two form the gbar is not too far behind. Everything else is a whopper. I'll roll out the top two plays.
UPDATE - rollout has the two plays even closer, but the Herd's decision is sill on top.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/3 8/2 Eq.: -0.198
0.451 0.100 0.002 - 0.549 0.109 0.002
2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/8 13/7 Eq.: -0.226 ( -0.028)
0.422 0.074 0.001 - 0.578 0.075 0.001
3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/2 Eq.: -0.292 ( -0.094)
0.396 0.087 0.002 - 0.604 0.090 0.002
4. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 6/1 Eq.: -0.310 ( -0.112)
0.399 0.083 0.001 - 0.601 0.117 0.002
5. Cubeful 2-ply 21/15 6/1 Eq.: -0.429 ( -0.230)
0.410 0.124 0.005 - 0.590 0.270 0.008
6. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7 6/1 Eq.: -0.457 ( -0.259)
0.346 0.078 0.001 - 0.654 0.161 0.005
7. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 21/15 Eq.: -0.505 ( -0.307)
0.376 0.071 0.003 - 0.624 0.280 0.007
8. Cubeful 2-ply 21/10 Eq.: -0.508 ( -0.310)
0.371 0.092 0.003 - 0.629 0.271 0.008
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. Rollout 8/3 8/2 Eq.: -0.195
0.449 0.146 0.006 - 0.551 0.101 0.009 CL -0.195 CF -0.195
[0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.004 CF 0.004]
2. Rollout 13/8 13/7 Eq.: -0.207 ( -0.012)
0.427 0.114 0.005 - 0.573 0.066 0.007 CL -0.207 CF -0.207
[0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880198069 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
2-ply analysis agrees with the Herd. Bringing down two form the gbar is not too far behind. Everything else is a whopper. I'll roll out the top two plays.
UPDATE - rollout has the two plays even closer, but the Herd's decision is sill on top.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/3 8/2 Eq.: -0.198
0.451 0.100 0.002 - 0.549 0.109 0.002
2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/8 13/7 Eq.: -0.226 ( -0.028)
0.422 0.074 0.001 - 0.578 0.075 0.001
3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/2 Eq.: -0.292 ( -0.094)
0.396 0.087 0.002 - 0.604 0.090 0.002
4. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 6/1 Eq.: -0.310 ( -0.112)
0.399 0.083 0.001 - 0.601 0.117 0.002
5. Cubeful 2-ply 21/15 6/1 Eq.: -0.429 ( -0.230)
0.410 0.124 0.005 - 0.590 0.270 0.008
6. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7 6/1 Eq.: -0.457 ( -0.259)
0.346 0.078 0.001 - 0.654 0.161 0.005
7. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 21/15 Eq.: -0.505 ( -0.307)
0.376 0.071 0.003 - 0.624 0.280 0.007
8. Cubeful 2-ply 21/10 Eq.: -0.508 ( -0.310)
0.371 0.092 0.003 - 0.629 0.271 0.008
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. Rollout 8/3 8/2 Eq.: -0.195
0.449 0.146 0.006 - 0.551 0.101 0.009 CL -0.195 CF -0.195
[0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.004 CF 0.004]
2. Rollout 13/8 13/7 Eq.: -0.207 ( -0.012)
0.427 0.114 0.005 - 0.573 0.066 0.007 CL -0.207 CF -0.207
[0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880198069 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]