Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 5/3 (2), 2/off (2)
votes: 3
Option 2: 3/1 (2), 2/off (2)
votes: 4
Title: Game 4, move 16: Herd 2-2
Post by: diane on February 22, 2011, 07:21:34 AM
Post by: diane on February 22, 2011, 07:21:34 AM
Position ID: 27URAAa3swcAAA
Match ID: UQmpACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-16-herd-2-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5782;image)
Match ID: UQmpACAAGAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-8/game-4-move-16-herd-2-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5782;image)
Title: Re: Game 4, move 16: Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on February 22, 2011, 11:41:15 AM
Post by: ah_clem on February 22, 2011, 11:41:15 AM
Spoiler
"A point that's cleared is not to be feared."
The gap on the five may look ugly, but the only way we'll have to place a checker here is if we roll a one, and with 5 checkers on the three we can play a lot of ones before we have to expose a blot. Meanwhile, piling up a stack on the ace point while leaving only one checker on the 3 and none on the two makes for a very inflexible bear off. We'll be forced to play off the 5 and 6 even when we don't want to.
2/off(2) 5/3(2).
The gap on the five may look ugly, but the only way we'll have to place a checker here is if we roll a one, and with 5 checkers on the three we can play a lot of ones before we have to expose a blot. Meanwhile, piling up a stack on the ace point while leaving only one checker on the 3 and none on the two makes for a very inflexible bear off. We'll be forced to play off the 5 and 6 even when we don't want to.
2/off(2) 5/3(2).
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 16: Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on February 23, 2011, 01:59:01 PM
Post by: ah_clem on February 23, 2011, 01:59:01 PM
gnubg relsults
2-ply analysis favors clearing the 5 point in either of two ways.
0-ply rollout likes the Herd's play.
Starting a 2-ply rollout....
1. Cubeful 2-ply 5/1 5/3 2/off Eq.: +0.882
0.941 0.033 0.000 - 0.059 0.000 0.000
2. Cubeful 2-ply 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.882 ( -0.000)
0.941 0.045 0.000 - 0.059 0.000 0.000
3. Cubeful 2-ply 5/1(2) Eq.: +0.871 ( -0.011)
0.935 0.028 0.000 - 0.065 0.000 0.000
4. Cubeful 2-ply 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.864 ( -0.018)
0.932 0.042 0.000 - 0.068 0.000 0.000
5. Cubeful 2-ply 3/1(3) 2/off Eq.: +0.850 ( -0.032)
0.925 0.028 0.000 - 0.075 0.000 0.000
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. Rollout 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.882
0.941 0.292 0.001 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 CL +0.882 CF +0.882
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
2. Rollout 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.863 ( -0.018)
0.932 0.279 0.001 - 0.068 0.000 0.000 CL +0.863 CF +0.863
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
3. Rollout 5/1 5/3 2/off Eq.: +0.855 ( -0.026)
0.928 0.252 0.000 - 0.072 0.000 0.000 CL +0.855 CF +0.855
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
4. Rollout 5/1(2) Eq.: +0.850 ( -0.032)
0.925 0.229 0.000 - 0.075 0.000 0.000 CL +0.850 CF +0.850
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
2-ply analysis favors clearing the 5 point in either of two ways.
0-ply rollout likes the Herd's play.
Starting a 2-ply rollout....
1. Cubeful 2-ply 5/1 5/3 2/off Eq.: +0.882
0.941 0.033 0.000 - 0.059 0.000 0.000
2. Cubeful 2-ply 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.882 ( -0.000)
0.941 0.045 0.000 - 0.059 0.000 0.000
3. Cubeful 2-ply 5/1(2) Eq.: +0.871 ( -0.011)
0.935 0.028 0.000 - 0.065 0.000 0.000
4. Cubeful 2-ply 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.864 ( -0.018)
0.932 0.042 0.000 - 0.068 0.000 0.000
5. Cubeful 2-ply 3/1(3) 2/off Eq.: +0.850 ( -0.032)
0.925 0.028 0.000 - 0.075 0.000 0.000
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. Rollout 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.882
0.941 0.292 0.001 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 CL +0.882 CF +0.882
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
2. Rollout 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.863 ( -0.018)
0.932 0.279 0.001 - 0.068 0.000 0.000 CL +0.863 CF +0.863
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
3. Rollout 5/1 5/3 2/off Eq.: +0.855 ( -0.026)
0.928 0.252 0.000 - 0.072 0.000 0.000 CL +0.855 CF +0.855
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
4. Rollout 5/1(2) Eq.: +0.850 ( -0.032)
0.925 0.229 0.000 - 0.075 0.000 0.000 CL +0.850 CF +0.850
[0.001 0.008 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 16: Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on February 23, 2011, 11:47:25 PM
Post by: ah_clem on February 23, 2011, 11:47:25 PM
2-ply rollout
the Herd's move stays on top.
1. Rollout 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.891
0.946 0.291 0.002 - 0.054 0.000 0.000 CL +0.891 CF +0.891
[0.001 0.010 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.871 ( -0.021)
0.935 0.290 0.001 - 0.065 0.000 0.000 CL +0.871 CF +0.871
[0.001 0.010 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Spoiler
the Herd's move stays on top.
1. Rollout 3/1(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.891
0.946 0.291 0.002 - 0.054 0.000 0.000 CL +0.891 CF +0.891
[0.001 0.010 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 5/3(2) 2/off(2) Eq.: +0.871 ( -0.021)
0.935 0.290 0.001 - 0.065 0.000 0.000 CL +0.871 CF +0.871
[0.001 0.010 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880132554 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]