Poll
We want the gammon, and he's got a blot in his homeboard and only two points made vs. our 5. HIT!!!.
As for where to play the one, I'd go for 22/21 - unless he rolls 11 he won't want to hit us, and he'll hit us with 11 whether we play 22/21 or 4/3. So I say spread the runners around and diversify leaping numbers.
22/21 6/1*
Sorry that you didn't get to dance. Maybe there'll be another opportunity for you to show your moves on the dance floor.
In the meantime, we can peruse this rollout. And since I now have an up to date sgf file and there arent' any cube dceisions lurking I'll rollout some interesting positions and post under the relevant move thread.
rollout
gnu 0-ply says 4/3 is a whopper.
1. Rollout 22/21 6/1* Eq.: +0.862
0.775 0.300 0.005 - 0.225 0.068 0.006 CL +0.947 CF +0.862
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.009]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881709475 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
2. Rollout 6/1* 4/3 Eq.: +0.767 ( -0.094)
0.744 0.286 0.006 - 0.256 0.069 0.004 CL +0.860 CF +0.767
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.009]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881709475 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
A difference of .1 EMG is generally considered to be the threshold for a whopper. Here we have a difference of .094, which is probably about a pickle shy of a whopper, but close enough.
In terms of match winning chances, the difference is about 1.45% - not all that much on it's own, but if you make a dozen or so of these over the course of the match, you're giving up a lot of equity.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 6/1*, 4/3
votes: 2
Option 2: 6/1*, 22/21
votes: 3
Option 3: 6/1*, 2/1
votes: 0
Option 4: 20/14
votes: 0
Option 5: 20/15, 22/21
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: diane on April 18, 2011, 09:35:34 PM
Post by: diane on April 18, 2011, 09:35:34 PM
Position ID: DZ83ACC22wGADA
Match ID: QYmmABAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/game-2-move-18-herd-5-1/?action=dlattach;attach=6301;image)
Match ID: QYmmABAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/game-2-move-18-herd-5-1/?action=dlattach;attach=6301;image)
Title: Re: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 19, 2011, 02:03:24 AM
Post by: ah_clem on April 19, 2011, 02:03:24 AM
Spoiler
We want the gammon, and he's got a blot in his homeboard and only two points made vs. our 5. HIT!!!.
As for where to play the one, I'd go for 22/21 - unless he rolls 11 he won't want to hit us, and he'll hit us with 11 whether we play 22/21 or 4/3. So I say spread the runners around and diversify leaping numbers.
22/21 6/1*
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: gaspar on April 20, 2011, 04:03:59 PM
Post by: gaspar on April 20, 2011, 04:03:59 PM
hey clem,
thx for taking over the ship for a while....much appreciated...looks like i may be off dancing for a while
gaspar
thx for taking over the ship for a while....much appreciated...looks like i may be off dancing for a while
gaspar
Title: Re: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 21, 2011, 12:28:26 AM
Post by: ah_clem on April 21, 2011, 12:28:26 AM
Quote from: gaspar on April 20, 2011, 04:03:59 PM
hey clem,
thx for taking over the ship for a while....much appreciated...looks like i may be off dancing for a while
Sorry that you didn't get to dance. Maybe there'll be another opportunity for you to show your moves on the dance floor.
In the meantime, we can peruse this rollout. And since I now have an up to date sgf file and there arent' any cube dceisions lurking I'll rollout some interesting positions and post under the relevant move thread.
rollout
Spoiler
gnu 0-ply says 4/3 is a whopper.
1. Rollout 22/21 6/1* Eq.: +0.862
0.775 0.300 0.005 - 0.225 0.068 0.006 CL +0.947 CF +0.862
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.009]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881709475 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
2. Rollout 6/1* 4/3 Eq.: +0.767 ( -0.094)
0.744 0.286 0.006 - 0.256 0.069 0.004 CL +0.860 CF +0.767
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.009]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881709475 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: stog on April 21, 2011, 12:30:51 PM
Post by: stog on April 21, 2011, 12:30:51 PM
Spoiler
is 0.7 compared with 0.8 whopperish?
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 18: Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 21, 2011, 01:07:49 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 21, 2011, 01:07:49 PM
Quote from: stog on April 21, 2011, 12:30:51 PM
is 0.7 compared with 0.8 whopperish?
A difference of .1 EMG is generally considered to be the threshold for a whopper. Here we have a difference of .094, which is probably about a pickle shy of a whopper, but close enough.
In terms of match winning chances, the difference is about 1.45% - not all that much on it's own, but if you make a dozen or so of these over the course of the match, you're giving up a lot of equity.