FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 9 => Topic started by: ah_clem on April 22, 2011, 05:53:58 PM
we danced with 66, and I'm pausing to see if gaspar wants to cube.
:blink: :blink:
Looking at this mess, in all its awfulness..I cant help but wonder what I was thinking leaving this with clem to take care of. Remind me to never let him look after my dogs...
my name is billy tucker not silly fucker......i uh think i will go for G....
now if i had only one chance to roll a 6 with you guys say one on the bar i would consider it but i will have at least 4 or 5 shots to roll a 6 before i have to even consider crashing...i will say this your board is VERY scary and with 2 pts in hand i will be treading lightly
btw a big thx to clem for managing this while diane is away
Quote from: gaspar on April 23, 2011, 01:33:40 PM
btw a big thx to clem for managing this while diane is away
Well, depending on what you mean by "managing" I guess this is a compliment. (c:
Here's a rollout of the cube decision:
Spoiler
This is pretty clearly too good to double. 2-ply analysis has this as a pass,but 0-ply rollout has it as a narrow take (due to the match score). I'm having a hard time believing that this is a take... starting 2-ply rollout...
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +1.540 (Money: +1.180)
0.786 0.587 0.049 - 0.214 0.028 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.381
2. Double, take +1.335 ( -0.046)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.381)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, pass
ROLLOUT:
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.412
2. Double, take +0.995 ( -0.416)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.412)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, take
Rollout details:
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
0.734 0.580 0.103 - 0.266 0.039 0.001 CL +1.395 CF +1.412
[0.002 0.003 0.005 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.009 CF 0.010]
Player Herd owns 4-cube:
0.734 0.657 0.090 - 0.266 0.042 0.002 CL +1.309 CF +0.995
[0.002 0.006 0.005 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL 0.012 CF 0.015]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2-ply rollout
Spoiler
Two ply rollout has this as a pass, but not by as much as one would think at first glance. Why is this even remotely a take? Well, once the cube is turned, gammons don't matter anymore, so it's only the GWC that factor in the decision, and gaspar is only ~74% to win here. With 26% GWC for us, it's almost a take. But cubing would be a massive blunder.
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.460
2. Double, take +1.051 ( -0.409)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.460)
Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, pass
Rollout details:
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
0.742 0.591 0.118 - 0.258 0.036 0.002 CL +1.436 CF +1.460
[0.002 0.003 0.006 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.008 CF 0.009]
Player Herd owns 4-cube:
0.743 0.675 0.119 - 0.257 0.036 0.002 CL +1.355 CF +1.051
[0.002 0.007 0.006 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.010 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]