Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 4/3, 4/off
Option 2: 4/off, 3/2
Option 3: 4/off, 1/off
Option 4: 5/4, 5/1
Title: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: diane on May 13, 2011, 02:01:53 PM
Post by: diane on May 13, 2011, 02:01:53 PM
ok, no one likes my move here..I think it is the right thing to do, in these circumstances.
I would appreciate input from the spectators and hoard, before I make any reference to what my unpopular move was...
(http://www.fibsboard.com/backgammon-problems/i-humbly-ask-the-opinion-of-the-indulgent-herd/?action=dlattach;attach=6497;image)
I would appreciate input from the spectators and hoard, before I make any reference to what my unpopular move was...
(http://www.fibsboard.com/backgammon-problems/i-humbly-ask-the-opinion-of-the-indulgent-herd/?action=dlattach;attach=6497;image)
Title: Re: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2011, 02:27:54 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2011, 02:27:54 PM
A couple ways to go here:
1) take two off to increase gammon chances
2) clear the 5 point - a point that's cleared is not to be feared .
3) play both from the four point and leave oneself even-ended.
I don't think 2 is correct, since it leaves you odd-ended, gives him twice as many chances to enter (and run off the gammon), and doesn't bear off a checker (also reducing gammon chances).
White needs 16 crossovers to save gammon, so I think we can get away with the safer4/off 4/1 4/off 4/3 - I don't think we need to play riskily to get the gammon.
1) take two off to increase gammon chances
2) clear the 5 point - a point that's cleared is not to be feared .
3) play both from the four point and leave oneself even-ended.
I don't think 2 is correct, since it leaves you odd-ended, gives him twice as many chances to enter (and run off the gammon), and doesn't bear off a checker (also reducing gammon chances).
White needs 16 crossovers to save gammon, so I think we can get away with the safer
Title: Re: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: DicePolice on May 13, 2011, 02:54:39 PM
Post by: DicePolice on May 13, 2011, 02:54:39 PM
avoid being odd ended so ...
4/3, 4/off
and as far as I know (which predates internet & gnu & BG books) this is the rule that applies to all bear off situations. Do not odd end yourself if you can avoid it.
4/3, 4/off
and as far as I know (which predates internet & gnu & BG books) this is the rule that applies to all bear off situations. Do not odd end yourself if you can avoid it.
Title: Re: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: diane on May 13, 2011, 03:54:58 PM
Post by: diane on May 13, 2011, 03:54:58 PM
grrr..initial evaluation agreed with me in gnu - but now a roll out has decided the safe play is better...ok..will play safe. :laugh:
Spoiler
1. Rollout 4/3 4/off Eq.: +1.849
0.975 0.917 0.053 - 0.025 0.000 0.000 CL +1.849 CF +1.849
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 4/off 1/off Eq.: +1.829 ( -0.020)
0.957 0.897 0.079 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL +1.828 CF +1.829
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 4/off 3/2 Eq.: +1.709 ( -0.140)
0.933 0.865 0.056 - 0.067 0.000 0.000 CL +1.722 CF +1.709
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
0.975 0.917 0.053 - 0.025 0.000 0.000 CL +1.849 CF +1.849
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 4/off 1/off Eq.: +1.829 ( -0.020)
0.957 0.897 0.079 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL +1.828 CF +1.829
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 4/off 3/2 Eq.: +1.709 ( -0.140)
0.933 0.865 0.056 - 0.067 0.000 0.000 CL +1.722 CF +1.709
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.004]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888040438 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]
Title: Re: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: garp_02 on May 13, 2011, 04:37:12 PM
Post by: garp_02 on May 13, 2011, 04:37:12 PM
I@m going with Clem's 4/off, 4/1 and would like a loan of those dice :ohmy:
But seriously 4/off, 4/3 seems obvious - the gammon is looking good but no need to force it :)
But seriously 4/off, 4/3 seems obvious - the gammon is looking good but no need to force it :)
Title: Re: I humbly ask the opinion of the indulgent herd....
Post by: Caleb on May 13, 2011, 08:09:15 PM
Post by: Caleb on May 13, 2011, 08:09:15 PM
I agree with 4 off 4-3 (Or "I agree with Nick" as we used to say in UK - you gotta be English to get that though ;^)