Poll
The biggest problem we face is stog anchoring, so I say let's try to prevent that. Hitting loose is too risky, so I like the point switching play - 5/2(2)*. Who cares if he anchors on the 5? By the time he anchors, we'll be past him. With the point switching play, his only hope is to roll a joker 55, and even that won't be enough unless he rolls it right away.
Note that if gammons counted, I wouldn't make this play.
Question: Move? 
Option 1: 11/5, 8/6
votes: 3
Option 2: 11/5, 3/1*
votes: 1
Option 3: 8/2, 3/1*
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/2, 8/6
votes: 0
Option 5: 8/6, 3/1*(3)
votes: 0
Option 6: 11/7, 8/6, 3/1*
votes: 2
Option 7: 11/9, 8/6(2), 3/1*
votes: 0
Option 8: 5/1(2)*
votes: 1
Title: Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2
Post by: diane on July 19, 2011, 09:14:53 PM
Post by: diane on July 19, 2011, 09:14:53 PM
Position ID: 7/YAAFB2txkBAA
Match ID: UQmpABAAGAAA
Stog danced with 3-2, herd has plenty of options with this roll...let me know if there is one you would like added, with reasons.
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-10/game-4-move-24-herd-2-2/?action=dlattach;attach=6798;image)
Match ID: UQmpABAAGAAA
Stog danced with 3-2, herd has plenty of options with this roll...let me know if there is one you would like added, with reasons.
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-10/game-4-move-24-herd-2-2/?action=dlattach;attach=6798;image)
Title: Re: Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2
Post by: Krazula on July 20, 2011, 08:54:22 AM
Post by: Krazula on July 20, 2011, 08:54:22 AM
Spoiler
I voted 11/5 3/1*. I'm not confident that this is the best move, but I doubt its far off.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on July 20, 2011, 12:21:40 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 20, 2011, 12:21:40 PM
Spoiler
The biggest problem we face is stog anchoring, so I say let's try to prevent that. Hitting loose is too risky, so I like the point switching play - 5/2(2)*. Who cares if he anchors on the 5? By the time he anchors, we'll be past him. With the point switching play, his only hope is to roll a joker 55, and even that won't be enough unless he rolls it right away.
Note that if gammons counted, I wouldn't make this play.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on July 21, 2011, 03:26:45 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 21, 2011, 03:26:45 AM
rollout
The Herd's choice comes out on top with gnu 0-ply rollout. Other moves are not too far behind - it's hard to make a serious blunder in this position. My point-shifting play is 14th best and a .04 error.
1. Rollout 11/5 8/6 Eq.: +0.942
0.971 0.377 0.019 - 0.029 0.000 0.000 CL +0.942 CF +0.942
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
2. Rollout 8/2 8/6 Eq.: +0.930 ( -0.012)
0.965 0.376 0.016 - 0.035 0.000 0.000 CL +0.930 CF +0.930
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
3. Rollout 11/9 8/4 8/6 Eq.: +0.927 ( -0.016)
0.963 0.354 0.016 - 0.037 0.000 0.000 CL +0.927 CF +0.927
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
4. Rollout 8/6 3/1*(3) Eq.: +0.923 ( -0.019)
0.962 0.386 0.013 - 0.038 0.000 0.000 CL +0.923 CF +0.923
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
5. Rollout 11/5 3/1* Eq.: +0.923 ( -0.019)
0.963 0.431 0.017 - 0.037 0.001 0.000 CL +0.923 CF +0.923
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
6. Rollout 11/9 8/2 Eq.: +0.921 ( -0.021)
0.961 0.329 0.015 - 0.039 0.000 0.000 CL +0.921 CF +0.921
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
7. Rollout 8/4 8/6 3/1* Eq.: +0.921 ( -0.021)
0.962 0.428 0.016 - 0.038 0.001 0.000 CL +0.921 CF +0.921
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
8. Rollout 11/9 8/6(2) 3/1* Eq.: +0.919 ( -0.023)
0.961 0.445 0.018 - 0.039 0.001 0.000 CL +0.919 CF +0.919
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
9. Rollout 11/7 8/6 3/1* Eq.: +0.918 ( -0.025)
0.963 0.440 0.018 - 0.037 0.004 0.000 CL +0.918 CF +0.918
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
10. Rollout 11/5 4/2 Eq.: +0.918 ( -0.025)
0.959 0.318 0.017 - 0.041 0.000 0.000 CL +0.918 CF +0.918
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
11. Rollout 11/9 8/6(2) 4/2 Eq.: +0.915 ( -0.028)
0.957 0.342 0.019 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL +0.915 CF +0.915
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
12. Rollout 11/9 3/1*(3) Eq.: +0.912 ( -0.031)
0.956 0.393 0.012 - 0.044 0.000 0.000 CL +0.912 CF +0.912
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
13. Rollout 11/7 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.907 ( -0.036)
0.954 0.380 0.017 - 0.046 0.000 0.000 CL +0.907 CF +0.907
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
14. Rollout 5/1*(2) Eq.: +0.905 ( -0.038)
0.952 0.319 0.008 - 0.048 0.000 0.000 CL +0.905 CF +0.905
[0.001 0.006 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923695915 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
The Herd's choice comes out on top with gnu 0-ply rollout. Other moves are not too far behind - it's hard to make a serious blunder in this position. My point-shifting play is 14th best and a .04 error.
1. Rollout 11/5 8/6 Eq.: +0.942
0.971 0.377 0.019 - 0.029 0.000 0.000 CL +0.942 CF +0.942
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
2. Rollout 8/2 8/6 Eq.: +0.930 ( -0.012)
0.965 0.376 0.016 - 0.035 0.000 0.000 CL +0.930 CF +0.930
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
3. Rollout 11/9 8/4 8/6 Eq.: +0.927 ( -0.016)
0.963 0.354 0.016 - 0.037 0.000 0.000 CL +0.927 CF +0.927
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
4. Rollout 8/6 3/1*(3) Eq.: +0.923 ( -0.019)
0.962 0.386 0.013 - 0.038 0.000 0.000 CL +0.923 CF +0.923
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
5. Rollout 11/5 3/1* Eq.: +0.923 ( -0.019)
0.963 0.431 0.017 - 0.037 0.001 0.000 CL +0.923 CF +0.923
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
6. Rollout 11/9 8/2 Eq.: +0.921 ( -0.021)
0.961 0.329 0.015 - 0.039 0.000 0.000 CL +0.921 CF +0.921
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
7. Rollout 8/4 8/6 3/1* Eq.: +0.921 ( -0.021)
0.962 0.428 0.016 - 0.038 0.001 0.000 CL +0.921 CF +0.921
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
8. Rollout 11/9 8/6(2) 3/1* Eq.: +0.919 ( -0.023)
0.961 0.445 0.018 - 0.039 0.001 0.000 CL +0.919 CF +0.919
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
9. Rollout 11/7 8/6 3/1* Eq.: +0.918 ( -0.025)
0.963 0.440 0.018 - 0.037 0.004 0.000 CL +0.918 CF +0.918
[0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
10. Rollout 11/5 4/2 Eq.: +0.918 ( -0.025)
0.959 0.318 0.017 - 0.041 0.000 0.000 CL +0.918 CF +0.918
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
11. Rollout 11/9 8/6(2) 4/2 Eq.: +0.915 ( -0.028)
0.957 0.342 0.019 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL +0.915 CF +0.915
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
12. Rollout 11/9 3/1*(3) Eq.: +0.912 ( -0.031)
0.956 0.393 0.012 - 0.044 0.000 0.000 CL +0.912 CF +0.912
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
13. Rollout 11/7 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.907 ( -0.036)
0.954 0.380 0.017 - 0.046 0.000 0.000 CL +0.907 CF +0.907
[0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.002]
14. Rollout 5/1*(2) Eq.: +0.905 ( -0.038)
0.952 0.319 0.008 - 0.048 0.000 0.000 CL +0.905 CF +0.905
[0.001 0.006 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923695915 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]