Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: Bar/24, 9/3
votes: 3
Option 2: Bar/18
votes: 0
Option 3: Bar/24, 13/7
votes: 0
Option 4: Bar/24, 8/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 3: Herd 6-1
Post by: diane on December 09, 2011, 08:10:39 AM
Post by: diane on December 09, 2011, 08:10:39 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 4, move 3: Herd 6-1
Post by: ah_clem on December 09, 2011, 08:15:29 PM
Post by: ah_clem on December 09, 2011, 08:15:29 PM
If the current vote leader (bar/24 9/3) hangs on to win the poll, no double for me. Just roll.
This is shaping up to be an ace point game, and the rule of thumb for ace point games is that the favorite loses ~20% of games but wins a gammon ~20% of the time. At this score, doubling would result in an automatic redouble and we'd be playing for the match. So those 20% gammon wins would be useless, but those 20% losses would be devastating. Thus no double for me.
BTW, the Herd's take point is ~18% at this score, so while ace point games are usually cashes, they're not even doubles at this score.
This is shaping up to be an ace point game, and the rule of thumb for ace point games is that the favorite loses ~20% of games but wins a gammon ~20% of the time. At this score, doubling would result in an automatic redouble and we'd be playing for the match. So those 20% gammon wins would be useless, but those 20% losses would be devastating. Thus no double for me.
BTW, the Herd's take point is ~18% at this score, so while ace point games are usually cashes, they're not even doubles at this score.