Poll
Obviously, we hit. THe question is whether to hit on the 16 or 15.
If we hit on the 16, we keep up the pressure by having a direct shot at the blot on the 15 next roll. Granted, Julia will have a double direct at our blot, but she only has half a roll to play with. Hitting on the 16 also leaves the deuce point slotted, which may be slightly better than having the ace point slotted. I say hit on the 16, but I'm not sure about it. 24/16*
Question: Move 
Option 1: 23/15*
votes: 3
Option 2: 24/16*
votes: 2
Option 3: 13/7, 5/3
votes: 0
Option 4: 23/21, 13/7
votes: 0
Option 5: 13/11, 13/7
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 6-2
Post by: diane on June 22, 2012, 10:13:12 AM
Post by: diane on June 22, 2012, 10:13:12 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 6-2
Post by: Dungeoneer on June 22, 2012, 10:38:08 AM
Post by: Dungeoneer on June 22, 2012, 10:38:08 AM
Not actually a spoiler, just my 2 cent (not yet backed by bot wisdom):
Spoiler
Hitting is mandatory - let's exert the outfield control we got from the split and improve the race by hitting. 23/15* leaves lesser shots than 24/16* and looks a little deeper into our outer board where we'll need to build a 2nd point in order to get home more safely.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on June 22, 2012, 02:34:33 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 22, 2012, 02:34:33 PM
Spoiler
Obviously, we hit. THe question is whether to hit on the 16 or 15.
If we hit on the 16, we keep up the pressure by having a direct shot at the blot on the 15 next roll. Granted, Julia will have a double direct at our blot, but she only has half a roll to play with. Hitting on the 16 also leaves the deuce point slotted, which may be slightly better than having the ace point slotted. I say hit on the 16, but I'm not sure about it. 24/16*
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 6-2
Post by: Dungeoneer on June 23, 2012, 12:13:29 PM
Post by: Dungeoneer on June 23, 2012, 12:13:29 PM
A quick gnubg 0.90.0 (Jun 4 2012) rollout of both hits with some speed-up settings
Spoiler
1. Rollout 23/15* MWC: 36.95%
0.571 0.119 0.004 - 0.429 0.115 0.004 CL 35.54% CF 36.95%
[0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL 0.07% CF 0.08%]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 24/16* MWC: 36.83% ( -0.12%)
0.561 0.128 0.004 - 0.439 0.120 0.004 CL 35.35% CF 36.83%
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL 0.07% CF 0.07%]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
0.571 0.119 0.004 - 0.429 0.115 0.004 CL 35.54% CF 36.95%
[0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL 0.07% CF 0.08%]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 24/16* MWC: 36.83% ( -0.12%)
0.561 0.128 0.004 - 0.439 0.120 0.004 CL 35.35% CF 36.83%
[0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL 0.07% CF 0.07%]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]