Poll
I just popped a spoiler round that..as per instructions..to give people a chance to make their own minds up..then confer ;)
It is absolutely correct to pause for a cube decision here.
But here I think the answer is roll. We have a slight edge in position, race is even, and I think she has the edge in threats, although it's slight. Gammons abound on both sides and maybe we win enough to make this a cube, but I see far too many sequences where it turns around and we get gammoned or have to eat a 4 cube.
OTOH, if we can leap out and she doesn't it's probably a cash. There are lots of sequences where this happens, so we may lose our market. I'm ok with that.
ND.
XGR++
The herd is pretty strong in this position, and only loses a few gammons, so the right play is to ship it. Kudos to those who got it right.
XGID=-a-BBBC-CAA----b-b-cdAba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 71.68% (G:10.09% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.32% (G:5.19% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.480, Double=+0.967
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.658 (-0.119)
Double/Take: +0.777
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.223)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Double?
Option 1: Double
votes: 5
Option 2: Play on
votes: 3
Title: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: diane on September 01, 2012, 06:25:23 AM
Post by: diane on September 01, 2012, 06:25:23 AM
I have been asked by a reliable member of the Herd to pause to think about a cube.. ;)
What do you all think?
What do you all think?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: Julia_H on September 01, 2012, 09:49:36 AM
Post by: Julia_H on September 01, 2012, 09:49:36 AM
Spoiler
It doesn't have quite the same psychological effect as, over the board, slamming down a cube immediately after a lucky sequence... but I double. Race slightly to us as we're on roll, all our numbers do something worthwhile, quite a few big sequences (making the bar, switching points, or an exchange of hits which sends a second white man back).
[close]
I just popped a spoiler round that..as per instructions..to give people a chance to make their own minds up..then confer ;)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on September 01, 2012, 01:40:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on September 01, 2012, 01:40:27 PM
Spoiler
It is absolutely correct to pause for a cube decision here.
But here I think the answer is roll. We have a slight edge in position, race is even, and I think she has the edge in threats, although it's slight. Gammons abound on both sides and maybe we win enough to make this a cube, but I see far too many sequences where it turns around and we get gammoned or have to eat a 4 cube.
OTOH, if we can leap out and she doesn't it's probably a cash. There are lots of sequences where this happens, so we may lose our market. I'm ok with that.
ND.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: diane on September 01, 2012, 10:42:36 PM
Post by: diane on September 01, 2012, 10:42:36 PM
oooh..a deadlock...come on folks..we need a tie breaker!
Title: Re: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: Patti on September 02, 2012, 02:49:33 AM
Post by: Patti on September 02, 2012, 02:49:33 AM
Go ahead, send it. You guys don't have the cojones...
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on September 02, 2012, 10:44:26 PM
Post by: ah_clem on September 02, 2012, 10:44:26 PM
XGR++
Spoiler
The herd is pretty strong in this position, and only loses a few gammons, so the right play is to ship it. Kudos to those who got it right.
XGID=-a-BBBC-CAA----b-b-cdAba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 71.68% (G:10.09% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.32% (G:5.19% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.480, Double=+0.967
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.658 (-0.119)
Double/Take: +0.777
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.223)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]