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Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 15 => Topic started by: diane on June 05, 2013, 01:40:40 PM

Poll
Question: Move
Option 1: 22/17, 12/6 votes: 1
Option 2: 22/17, 22/16 votes: 5
Option 3: 22/11 votes: 0
Option 4: 22/16, 12/7 votes: 0
Option 5: 12/1 votes: 1
Title: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on June 05, 2013, 01:40:40 PM
some moves were obvious..

30: Herd 5-2, 22/15
31: Linus 5-1, 7/6, 7/2...Herd 5-1, 15/12
32: Linus 5-1, 5/off, 2/1

And now the herd has a choice..

Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: stiefnu on June 05, 2013, 02:54:35 PM
Spoiler
No future in hanging back with the two back chequers while Linus bears off, nor with one (which might get hit and trapped. Even if we get a lucky shot, we have no board and he'd have returns. Run like hell and hope for the best! 22-16, 22-17
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: Julia_H on June 05, 2013, 04:24:33 PM
Spoiler
We can't hope to win by staying - by the time a shot does come along Linus will have enough men off to be a good favourite even if hit, as with our higher anchor he can bear off more aggressively than if we were further back, and we have nothing to contain a hit man with. If we run then we still have chances of a big double to help us along while Linus gets occasional misses from gaps low in his board; and of course we're safe from gammons.
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: KDP on June 06, 2013, 01:41:21 AM
Spoiler
run both and hope for the best
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2013, 02:58:07 AM
Spoiler

Even if we manage to get a shot, we can't contain squat.  Time to get out of Dodge and run off the gammon.  3a PC is not a bad score to be at (68% MWC) - much better than 2a PC (51% MWC).

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Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on June 06, 2013, 10:42:21 AM
ok..that became a race / run situation - so I played it out..file attached.

(http://www.fibsboard.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=5639.0;attach=8542;image)
Title: Re: Game 5, move 32 : Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2013, 02:50:00 PM
XGR++

Spoiler

Running doesn't win as many games as some other choices (4.7% vs 6.3%) but it loses a lot fewer gammons (1% vs 20%).  At this score, the difference between losing a single point vs losing a gammon is 68% MWC vs 51% MWC, so saving the gammon is right by a mile.




XGID=-JB---------A------ddcBba-:0:0:1:65:4:1:1:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                  |   | O  O  O  X  O  O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
|                  |   | O  O  O          |
|                  |   | O  O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |               10 |
|                  |   |                X |
|                  |   |                X |
|                  |   |             X  X |
| X                |   |             X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 70  O: 61 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

    1. XG Roller++ 22/17 22/16                  eq:-0.916
      Player:   4.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 95.31% (G:0.97% B:0.00%)

    2. XG Roller++ 12/1                         eq:-0.995 (-0.079)
      Player:   3.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 96.03% (G:7.26% B:0.09%)

    3. XG Roller++ 22/11                        eq:-1.024 (-0.108)
      Player:   5.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 94.14% (G:13.76% B:0.27%)

    4. XG Roller++ 22/16 12/7                   eq:-1.039 (-0.123)
      Player:   6.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 93.82% (G:15.87% B:0.30%)

    5. XG Roller++ 22/17 12/6                   eq:-1.079 (-0.163)
      Player:   6.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 93.74% (G:19.90% B:0.42%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


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