Poll
Making the 16 is the "obvious" play, but my take is that if we make that point now, we'll just have to clear it later when his board is stronger. With his board being in the state that it is and ours being so strong I think we can play a bit more boldly. I like 16/10 to aim a builder at the bar point and to clear the 16. Then move the runner up to prepare to escape. This keeps pressure on the blot on his 5 point.
It is quasi-DMP, so there's little value in sending a fourth checker back. And Linus shouldn't be reticent to hit loose. But the vast difference in board strength means any exchange of hits should go in our favor.
Making the 16 may well be best in the rollout, but my concern is that if we make it now we'll sit on it for long enough to be looking at a strong board when we have to clear it. I'd just as soon not make it now.
24/22, 16/10
ROLLOUT
XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O | +---+
| O | | X X X X X O | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:+0.523
Player: 78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 16/10 eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
Player: 76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG doesn't care for it so much.
XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O | +---+
| O | | X X X X X O | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:+0.523
Player: 78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 16/10 eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
Player: 76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/11 eq:+0.472 (-0.051)
Player: 75.80% (G:49.90% B:25.31%)
Opponent: 24.20% (G:2.18% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.466..+0.479) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 01 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24/16
votes: 5
Option 2: 16/10, 13/11
votes: 0
Option 3: 24/22, 16/10
votes: 2
Option 4: 16/8
votes: 0
Option 5: 24/18, 16/14
votes: 0
Title: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: diane on June 11, 2013, 10:34:15 AM
Post by: diane on June 11, 2013, 10:34:15 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: KDP on June 11, 2013, 11:51:22 AM
Post by: KDP on June 11, 2013, 11:51:22 AM
Spoiler
no need to get cute or try something fancy 6-2 allows us to escape our back checker and links us up with the straggler on the 16. 24-16.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on June 11, 2013, 01:05:34 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 11, 2013, 01:05:34 PM
Spoiler
Making the 16 is the "obvious" play, but my take is that if we make that point now, we'll just have to clear it later when his board is stronger. With his board being in the state that it is and ours being so strong I think we can play a bit more boldly. I like 16/10 to aim a builder at the bar point and to clear the 16. Then move the runner up to prepare to escape. This keeps pressure on the blot on his 5 point.
It is quasi-DMP, so there's little value in sending a fourth checker back. And Linus shouldn't be reticent to hit loose. But the vast difference in board strength means any exchange of hits should go in our favor.
Making the 16 may well be best in the rollout, but my concern is that if we make it now we'll sit on it for long enough to be looking at a strong board when we have to clear it. I'd just as soon not make it now.
24/22, 16/10
[close]
Title: Re: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on June 12, 2013, 04:18:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 12, 2013, 04:18:27 PM
ROLLOUT
Spoiler
XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O | +---+
| O | | X X X X X O | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:+0.523
Player: 78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 16/10 eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
Player: 76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]
Title: Re: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: diane on June 12, 2013, 09:20:25 PM
Post by: diane on June 12, 2013, 09:20:25 PM
Did you roll out 16/10, 13/11? If not do that....gnu as that has the best move by a smidge.
Title: Re: Game 6, move 6 : Herd 6-2
Post by: ah_clem on June 13, 2013, 09:58:43 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 13, 2013, 09:58:43 PM
Quote from: diane on June 12, 2013, 09:20:25 PM
Did you roll out 16/10, 13/11? If not do that....gnu as that has the best move by a smidge.
XG doesn't care for it so much.
XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Ad-ea---A-:1:1:1:62:4:2:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O | +---+
| O | | X X X X X O | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 165 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:+0.523
Player: 78.08% (G:41.34% B:16.22%)
Opponent: 21.92% (G:1.95% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.517..+0.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 16/10 eq:+0.487 (-0.036)
Player: 76.46% (G:46.58% B:21.78%)
Opponent: 23.54% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/11 eq:+0.472 (-0.051)
Player: 75.80% (G:49.90% B:25.31%)
Opponent: 24.20% (G:2.18% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.466..+0.479) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 01 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2