FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 15 => Topic started by: diane on June 12, 2013, 11:58:04 AM
Herd rolled 2-1 and moved 13/10
Linus up now..
6/3, 5/3.
ROLLOUT of Herd's 2-1 play.
Spoiler
I thought that breaking the holding game now while his board is weak would be worth considering. I'm fairly sure that the herd would have voted for 13/10 (I would have, but I had to think about it a bit)
I turns out that 13/10 is best (according to the rollout) but 16/13 is quite close.
XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Bc-dc-----:1:1:1:21:4:2:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O | +---+
| O | | X X X X X O | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 161 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq:+0.503
Player: 77.57% (G:38.61% B:13.98%)
Opponent: 22.43% (G:2.44% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.497..+0.508) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 16/13 eq:+0.489 (-0.014)
Player: 77.04% (G:40.62% B:16.10%)
Opponent: 22.96% (G:2.62% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.483..+0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Yes, I did see the two moves were quite close..but given the previous move - which I am hoping you have rolled out now, I felt really sure we would be waiting a day for a foregone conclusion.