Question:
Option 1: 9/7(2)
votes: 4
Option 2: 16/14(2)
votes: 5
Option 3: 8/7(2) 8/6
votes: 0
Option 4: 16/15(2) 8/6
votes: 0
Option 5: 9/6 9/8
votes: 0
11...
Spoiler
I only see two viable options: 16/14(2) or 9/7(2).
The race is close, so we need to keep the blockade in place. 16/14(2) blocks sixes and will allow our runners to more easily slip past elmicho's outfield checkers, but maybe we want him to be forced to run off the anchor with a six and to hang back to whack him when he is forced off the midpoint. Also, the gap on the bar point may be a problem when bearing in.
Seems to me that making the bar point will make 6s (other than 65 & 66) play awkwardly for elmicho and that 16/14(2) does not present the same level of awkward rolls. In fact rolls like 54 and 43 play nicely for him after 16/14(2) and awkwardly after making the bar. I'll make the bar.
9/7(2)
Spoiler
i would play 16-14(2) and just bring our 2 stragglers closer to home. you might want to also look at 16-15(2) 8-6 but i think bringing our 2 outermost checkers in is better.
Spoiler
16/14(2) for me with 16/15(2) 8/6 second. Our main goals are to keep blocking el_micho for as long as possible, and to get our checkers safely home. Moving up the backcheckers goes a long way towards that. 16/15(2) 8/6 is a compromise play, making it harder to get the backmen home but also making it harder for el_micho to clear the mid. The 8/6 is okay and the position remains flexible. I think getting the backmen home is top priority, so I prefer 16/14(2).
Other considerations: Hitting el_micho isn't always that great with the blot on our ace, and el_micho having the better board, plus it might give el_micho some extra timing he needs for his threepoint game.
9/7(2) gives el_micho sixes to escape, the best number to escape with, probably for the rest of the game. It also leaves us with the backcheckers stranded and a builder on the furthest point of the blockade, which is quite inflexible and makes our next moves harder. What are we going to do for an encore? The later bear-in after 9/7(2) might be slightly easier but it's not very significant. Bearing in the 9 and 8pt vs. the 3pt anchor is not so different from bearing in the 8 and 7pt vs. the 3pt. anchor.
rollout
Spoiler
Moving up the runners is best, with the compromise play a close second. Although making the bar point gives elmicho more awkward rolls, it's a .05 error.
XGID=-A-bCBB-CB--b---B--bbbbab-:1:1:1:11:4:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 110 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 16/14(2) eq:+0.379
Player: 71.03% (G:5.88% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 28.97% (G:2.00% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.375..+0.382) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 16/15(2) 8/6 eq:+0.369 (-0.010)
Player: 71.45% (G:8.56% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 28.55% (G:2.86% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.365..+0.373) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 8/6 eq:+0.342 (-0.037)
Player: 70.72% (G:10.53% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 29.28% (G:3.47% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.337..+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) eq:+0.325 (-0.053)
Player: 69.84% (G:8.87% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 30.16% (G:3.41% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.321..+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.209 (-0.169)
Player: 63.70% (G:7.71% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 36.30% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.205..+0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2