Poll
The obvious play is to cover the blot and safely play 6/4.
The interesting play is to cover the blot and bring another down daring him to hit. If he hits from the ten point, he wrecks his timing. If he hits from the five, he not only wrecks his timing but also abandons the back game, transitioning into a deuce-point game, although one with lots of action still to come.
World class players would know immediately whether the safe or the wild play was best. I am not a world class player, so I'll make the prosaic obvious move, but I won't be at all surprised if the wild move is better.
13/7 6/4
Question: Herd to play 62 
Option 1: 13/7 6/4
votes: 6
Option 2: 13/7 13/11
votes: 0
Option 3: 7/1 6/4
votes: 0
Title: FFM Game 1 Move 18: Herd to play 62
Post by: Julia_H on June 24, 2014, 10:02:46 PM
Post by: Julia_H on June 24, 2014, 10:02:46 PM
This one might be rather predictable...
Title: Re: FFM Game 1 Move 18: Herd to play 62
Post by: ah_clem on June 25, 2014, 02:06:26 AM
Post by: ah_clem on June 25, 2014, 02:06:26 AM
Spoiler
The obvious play is to cover the blot and safely play 6/4.
The interesting play is to cover the blot and bring another down daring him to hit. If he hits from the ten point, he wrecks his timing. If he hits from the five, he not only wrecks his timing but also abandons the back game, transitioning into a deuce-point game, although one with lots of action still to come.
World class players would know immediately whether the safe or the wild play was best. I am not a world class player, so I'll make the prosaic obvious move, but I won't be at all surprised if the wild move is better.
13/7 6/4
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Title: Re: FFM Game 1 Move 18: Herd to play 62
Post by: ah_clem on June 25, 2014, 01:42:22 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 25, 2014, 01:42:22 PM
rollout
XG four-ply analysis puts the two candidate moves almost even - the wild play is a .009 error.
Full rollout tells a different story with the quiet play ahead by .046
Against a clearly inferior opponent the wild play may be best as it gives them the chance to make more errors. Is hitting even correct? I'm not sure and a poor player would most likely leak a lot of equity. Of course, we're not playing a fencepost so the quiet play is in order.
XGID=--bBBbDAB-a-bD----adab----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X X O |
| O O X X | | X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 171 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/4 eq:+0.634
Player: 62.82% (G:19.49% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 37.18% (G:4.47% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.620..+0.648) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.588 (-0.046)
Player: 61.78% (G:21.66% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 38.22% (G:5.81% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.573..+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XG four-ply analysis puts the two candidate moves almost even - the wild play is a .009 error.
Full rollout tells a different story with the quiet play ahead by .046
Against a clearly inferior opponent the wild play may be best as it gives them the chance to make more errors. Is hitting even correct? I'm not sure and a poor player would most likely leak a lot of equity. Of course, we're not playing a fencepost so the quiet play is in order.
XGID=--bBBbDAB-a-bD----adab----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X X O |
| O O X X | | X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 171 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/4 eq:+0.634
Player: 62.82% (G:19.49% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 37.18% (G:4.47% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.620..+0.648) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.588 (-0.046)
Player: 61.78% (G:21.66% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 38.22% (G:5.81% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.573..+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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