Quote from: dorbel on June 26, 2014, 11:53:15 AM
I like this position. I suspect that 13/8 is the right play, ie the best play according to a bot rollout and I wouldn't argue with a partner who liked to play it in a doubles match, but I also think that 13/9, 4/3 is close and I would choose that. Why? When defending against a backgame in this sort of position (strong board against weak board and reasonable timing for the backgame player), it is often a good plan to leave a shot, hoping to be hit and recirculate the checker, thus destroying the opponent's timing and as here, getting him off one of his anchors.That may be right here, but even if it isn't I would still play it. Why? Because given the choice between two roughly equal plays, choose the one that gives your opponent the opportunity to make a mistake. 13/8 doesn't do that. 13/9, 4/3 does. It's wrong for Red to hit with anything other than 4-4 and (probably) 4-2, sometimes very wrong and even the 4-2 allows him to hit and play the wrong two! If red plays well and eschews the hit, then the 9pt is slotted as a useful landing point.
While I generally agree with your idea to make the play that gives your opponent more of a chance to make a mistake, having played Christopher a few times, I'd be very wary of trying to lure him into thorny positions in the hopes he'll make more mistakes than us.
That said, volunteering a shot with 13/9 seems sound, and while I'm not changing my vote I won't be at all displeased if it's the herd's choice.