Poll
Question: Herd to play 61 
Option 1: bar/18
votes: 1
Option 2: bar/24 13/7
votes: 7
Option 3: bar/24 6/2
votes: 1
Title: FFM Game 2 move 6: Herd to play 61
Post by: Julia_H on July 20, 2014, 08:51:20 AM
Post by: Julia_H on July 20, 2014, 08:51:20 AM
Only three legal choices this time...
Title: Re: FFM Game 2 move 6: Herd to play 61
Post by: ah_clem on July 21, 2014, 03:48:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 21, 2014, 03:48:27 PM
rollout
Splitting to the bar point exposes the blot to a triple shot, and with the better board Chris will certainly be willing to hit loose. And since he also has two men on his ace point it's not so bad having two men there ourselves.
Slotting our bar point is the right idea - it unstacks the midpoint and slots a valuable point. Yeah, it's likely to be hit, but we have a return shot. And the alternative of 8/2 needlessly buries a checker while still exposing a direct shot.
XGID=-b---BC-D---dDa--a-bb-baAA:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 149 X-O: 2-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 13/7 eq:-0.131
Player: 50.50% (G:16.44% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 49.50% (G:17.18% B:1.31%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/18 eq:-0.287 (-0.156)
Player: 48.63% (G:14.04% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 51.37% (G:21.83% B:0.72%)
3. XG Roller++ Bar/24 8/2 eq:-0.376 (-0.244)
Player: 45.44% (G:13.66% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 54.56% (G:19.92% B:1.49%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Splitting to the bar point exposes the blot to a triple shot, and with the better board Chris will certainly be willing to hit loose. And since he also has two men on his ace point it's not so bad having two men there ourselves.
Slotting our bar point is the right idea - it unstacks the midpoint and slots a valuable point. Yeah, it's likely to be hit, but we have a return shot. And the alternative of 8/2 needlessly buries a checker while still exposing a direct shot.
XGID=-b---BC-D---dDa--a-bb-baAA:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 149 X-O: 2-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 13/7 eq:-0.131
Player: 50.50% (G:16.44% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 49.50% (G:17.18% B:1.31%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/18 eq:-0.287 (-0.156)
Player: 48.63% (G:14.04% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 51.37% (G:21.83% B:0.72%)
3. XG Roller++ Bar/24 8/2 eq:-0.376 (-0.244)
Player: 45.44% (G:13.66% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 54.56% (G:19.92% B:1.49%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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