Poll
Question: take or pass
Option 1: take
Option 2: pass
Title: roman cubes
Post by: stog on November 05, 2014, 10:43:55 AM
Post by: stog on November 05, 2014, 10:43:55 AM
roman cubes
take or pass
Quotedue to your struggler on 23 i am inclined to double, after your move 10, Herd to play 11,
after some thinking i definitely double. I am up in the race, some attacking chances, and i have some time to wait rolling some doubles, all in all a good cube.
take or pass
Title: Re: roman cubes
Post by: ah_clem on November 06, 2014, 01:11:39 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 06, 2014, 01:11:39 PM
Spoiler
Our live takepoint AtS is about the same as for money. Gammons look to be fairly rare here, so the question is do we have ~22% game winning chances?
If this was a straight race our point of last take would be 13 pips behind. We're 16 pips behind, but there's still contact so I think we can take with that deficit.
OTOH, letting him get to 2a 3a means we can push the cube earlier and often get to Crawford, so passing this isn't giving up very much. I'll say take, but won't be surprised if it's a pass.
Take.
If this was a straight race our point of last take would be 13 pips behind. We're 16 pips behind, but there's still contact so I think we can take with that deficit.
OTOH, letting him get to 2a 3a means we can push the cube earlier and often get to Crawford, so passing this isn't giving up very much. I'll say take, but won't be surprised if it's a pass.
Take.
[close]
Title: Re: roman cubes
Post by: ah_clem on November 07, 2014, 07:47:23 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 07, 2014, 07:47:23 PM
XGR++
A few more gammons than I expected, but we're still over 30% to win this game. Massive take and a good double.
XGID=----BBBbDB------ccBcbb-A--:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O X | | O O O X |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 123 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 68.19% (G:15.90% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:5.23% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.462, Double=+0.972
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.689 (-0.034)
Double/Take: +0.723
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.277)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
A few more gammons than I expected, but we're still over 30% to win this game. Massive take and a good double.
XGID=----BBBbDB------ccBcbb-A--:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O X | | O O O X |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 123 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 68.19% (G:15.90% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:5.23% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.462, Double=+0.972
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.689 (-0.034)
Double/Take: +0.723
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.277)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]