Cube 113 - Backgame redouble to match point?

[sixty_something]

If the board image does not appear in the question above, you may view it in the attached PNG file below.

one vote per user .. results of the poll are shown after you have voted

then, open the text file below for a copy of the GNUbg analysis or you may enter the ID's below into GNUbg or Snowie to evaluate your answer:

Position ID: 7zcaAADWdgDgBg   Match ID: UQmgABAAAAAA

Life's greatest happiness is to be convinced we are loved.
-- Victor Hugo , Les Miserables, 1862 French dramatist, novelist, & poet (1802 - 1885)

[Hardy_whv]

Very good and insightful situation here 

Spoiler

I vote for a redouble-take here.

First af all: If red loses, he is very likely to lose a Gammon, and therfore the match. So it doesn't matter for red wether he loses with the cube on 2 or on 4. But if he wins, he is the favorite. Not much to lose, much to win. Double!

If red doesn't hit the blot this roll, there are still good chances, that you get another shot next roll or the roll after that.

If red has hit the white checker he has good chances to win. While red may hit the blot on the 3-point, red is a favorite to hit back on white's way back to his homeboard. White has no flexibility while red can distribute the checkers in the outer fields to maximise shots on white's home-running checker and will probably be able to re-build his board and close white out.

Has white a take? Yes, sure. There are too many occasions where red is unable to hit, that this justifies a take.

[close]

Hardy 

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

I blundered this. This position shows the importance of the score in doubling decision. For example if the score is 0-0, then this would not be a double. I tried many different scores and it seems that this is double when backgame player is trailing a lot or the other player is 4-away and backgame player not leeding. When backgame player is leeding this seems to be never double.

[close]

[Tomawaky]

Spoiler

hello  it's me ... Double take. Good answer hardy. But who is Wite and who is Red 

[close]

[dorbel]

You cant evaluate this position without knowing the score. What is it please?

[socksey]

Trailing 0-1 in a 5 point

socksey



Never apologize for showing feeling.  When you do so, you apologize for truth. - unknown

[dorbel]

Thanks, for some reason, I only saw the letters, not the poll bit.
This is a very nice position and highlights a redouble opportunity that often occurs at this score. Note that for money, a redouble here would be absurd and Red would have a correct beaver.
At this score however, a redouble and take has several interesting effects. On these figures, first, the 26% of the games that end in a gammon for Red are now worth only as much as a plain win. Second, White's gammons (10% of the games) now win the match for him and third, his plain wins get him to the Crawford game, always a valuable point to reach first.
Fourth and not least, the cube goes dead, so Red gains nothing from owning it. In a money game she would only have to get into the 75-80% wins range and she could win with the cube, but here, she has to get to 100% to score the points.
Note that if White misses here, he very often gets second helpings and occasionally a third try. If he hits, Red can also enter awkwardly (1-5 or 1-4 for example and expose another checker.
Nice redouble, easy take. You will note that above I said "on these figures". This is because a rollout shows that Red wins 35 useless gammons, rather than the 27% of the 2-ply evaluation. This doesn't alter the correct cube action for either side though.