Position # 16

[PersianLord]

Score :        Red 0-0 White
Pip-counts : Red 87-91 White
Match :       7-pointer



Red's Cube action?

Spoiler

It's true that soon white will be forced to leave a shot and/or break his board, but red has limited timing too. Also his blots are subject to some long shots as well, and if hit, he will pay a lot. Proper cube action is no double/take as GNUBG clarifies:

Cube analysis

2-ply cubeless equity  +0.445 (Money:  +0.442)
  0.699 0.062 0.001 - 0.301 0.019 0.000

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            Eq.:  +0.725                          MWC: 54.50%
2. Double, pass         Eq.:  +1.000  ( +0.275)         MWC: 56.21%
3. Double, take         Eq.: +0.702   ( -0.023)          MWC: 54.36%

Proper cube action: No double, take (7.7%)

Red must waits a bit longer to improve his position and then he may double, but now, it's a bit danjerous as his position has uncertainities.

[close]

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Surpricing result at least for me. Practically this is almost never double (unless playing against very strong opponents) because there is big chance that white will take even after the markets are lost on next roll. Many players will just look the pip counts and not realize that they're either giving shots or waisting pips. But it's surpricing to me that it is not double even agaist perfect player.

A lot of time red loses markets here. If white doesn't hit and leaves shot, then markets are lost almost every time. Markets are also lost in many other sequences where red rolls big numbers and white crushes his home board. So why not to double? Red is close to cash point and just about to lose his markets. Clearly double? No, says gnu.

I can only figure out two things to explain this. 1) White can surely turn the game over by single roll if he hits or rolls big doubles. That would be very costly, like PersianLord said. 2) But the second more important thing seems to be (not sure about this) that red doesn't lose markets by much. It's important if you miss your markets by a mile or by one hundred of point.

So what's happening here is that the next exchange of rolls will lead to 1) white rolls jokers, 2) red misses markets just but not by much or 3) red gets huge double just under cash point. So it seems it is reasonable to wait that one roll before doubling and get the odds even closer to cash point. Important position and I'll sure want to remember it later.

[close]

[PersianLord]

Surpricing result at least for me. Practically this is almost never double (unless playing against very strong opponents) because there is big chance that white will take even after the markets are lost on next roll. Many players will just look the pip counts and not realize that they're either giving shots or waisting pips. But it's surpricing to me that it is not double even agaist perfect player.

A lot of time red loses markets here. If white doesn't hit and leaves shot, then markets are lost almost every time. Markets are also lost in many other sequences where red rolls big numbers and white crushes his home board. So why not to double? Red is close to cash point and just about to lose his markets. Clearly double? No, says gnu.

I can only figure out two things to explain this. 1) White can surely turn the game over by single roll if he hits or rolls big doubles. That would be very costly, like PersianLord said. 2) But the second more important thing seems to be (not sure about this) that red doesn't lose markets by much. It's important if you miss your markets by a mile or by one hundred of point.

So what's happening here is that the next exchange of rolls will lead to 1) white rolls jokers, 2) red misses markets just but not by much or 3) red gets huge double just under cash point. So it seems it is reasonable to wait that one roll before doubling and get the odds even closer to cash point. Important position and I'll sure want to remember it later.

I'm glad that at last one of my positions attracted attention.  I always think that since I am intermediate and most of you guys are at least advanced, if not world-class like dorbel, my positions are just challenging to me and just time-wasting no brainers for others.

About this position, it was surprising ( ) too that at 0-ply, gnubg supported double/take, but it was at 2-ply that it discarded the double. I, too, think that red must wait at least one more roll and then double.

Thanks

[playBunny]

~~I always think that since I am intermediate and most of you guys are at least advanced, if not world-class like dorbel, my positions are just challenging to me and just time-wasting no brainers for others.

Lol, some of them may be no-brainers for some people but there's no need to worry about that at all. There's still satisfaction to be had in getting most right, and it makes a change from the puzzle sets where you get a lot wrong and have to go and learn something! (Which is not to imply that I'm even getting most of these right myself, lol, just that it's nice when I do. )

[don]

It's worth pointing out that gnu doesn't consider a double here to be much of a blunder.  Nobody has noted that some rolls for red will cause red to lose the market.  Hey, we're talking people playing here, not bots.

--
don