Position # 36

[PersianLord]

Position information:

Pip-count: Red 47-133 White
Score:       Red   0-0     White
Match:                3-pointer

White on roll. Proper cube action?





First make your choice and then read on.

Spoiler

This is a very volatile position. Red has been forced to leave 2 shots with an unlucky 5-3 roll last time and now white is well prepared to attack them. If white can hit even one of them, he should be in no trouble winning the game considering his 5.5-pt prime, but if he misses, red will regain the upper hand. White has ~61% (22/36) chance to hit at least one of the red's blots immediately, and if he hits one, he will most probably manage to hit the other as well. But what if he misses? Then white will be even in danger of losing a gammon, though he will have still a slim chance to hunt another blot during the red's bear-off stage. Thus the optimal tactic for white is to put the whole match in line right now by doubling, because then if he hits and wins, he will win the match and if he misses, his gammon losses will make no difference at all.

And what about red's response? If he passes, he will be 0-2 in Crawford game, thus his ME will be around 30%. Right now he has about 40% GWC considering white's hitting chances, thus it's much better for him to accept the double then to playing in a Crawford game 0-2 behind.

Cube analysis

2-ply cubeless equity  +0.163 (Money:  +0.164)

   58.8%  11.4%   0.3% -  41.2%  12.8%   0.1%

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, take         +0.345
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.655)
3. No double            +0.298  ( -0.047)

Proper cube action: Redouble, take



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Note: I'm not sure, but I think the difference between white's GWC (58.8%) and his hitting chance (61.1%) is the chance of rolling a lucky 4-6 roll for red after white hits one of the blots (~3%).

[close]

[playBunny]

Doh!!

Spoiler

Of course it's not Too Good for white! (but clearly is for red).

[close]

Can you change First make your choice and then read on to First read it properly, then make your choice and then read on.   Another possibility is Go to bed and read it after a good sleep, then make your choice and then read on

[PersianLord]

Doh!!

Spoiler

Of course it's not Too Good for white! (but clearly is for red).

[close]

Can you change First make your choice and then read on to First read it properly, then make your choice and then read on.   Another possibility is Go to bed and read it after a good sleep, then make your choice and then read on