Position # 45

[PersianLord]

Position information:

Pip-count: Red 122-92 White
Score:       Red     4-1   White
Match:                   7-pointer

White to play 54



This is my own analysis, regard it as an opinion of an intermediate player.

Spoiler

Red is in an awkward position and his home is a complete mess at the current moment and also 5 men to bring to saftey yet. Instead, white has a strong board and positional power. These factors favors a bold move for white, hence the GNUBG's favorite move: making the 4-pt with 9/4-8/4. After this move, red will have some good rolls such as 53-63, but bringing 5 men home will be a tall order for him and then getting a shot for white will be much more profitable when he has a 5-pt board.

1. Cubeful 2-ply    9/4 8/4                      Eq.:  +0.930
        81.8%  28.9%   0.5% -  18.2%   1.7%   0.0%
       
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    9/5 9/4                      Eq.:  +0.901 ( -0.028)
        82.3%  25.5%   0.3% -  17.7%   1.2%   0.0%
       
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    22/17 9/5                    Eq.:  +0.825 ( -0.104)
        81.4%  20.6%   0.2% -  18.6%   1.3%   0.0%
       
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    9/5 6/1                      Eq.:  +0.733 ( -0.197)
        76.3%  22.5%   0.2% -  23.7%   2.1%   0.0%
       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    22/13                        Eq.:  +0.718 ( -0.211)
        80.1%  13.5%   0.1% -  19.9%   1.1%   0.0%
       
Note that even the timid move of 22/13 wins simple wins almost as much as the best move, but with much less gammons which are vital for white at this score.

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[socksey]

What about 22/17, 6/2? 

socksey



"English is a language where double negatives are a no-no." - Alfred E. Neuman

[PersianLord]

What about 22/17, 6/2? 

socksey



"English is a language where double negatives are a no-no." - Alfred E. Neuman

No offense socksey, but what's the idea behind 22/17-6/2? If running matters for you, then why not the straight forward running of 22/13? Considering red's 2 blots in his board, getting hit will hurt red more than white. So white's not scary of getting hit. Also with 6/2, white puts a man in a place it does NOT belong.

Regards

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Every time opponent has very weak home board and/or lot of burned checkers it is good time to consider some fancy play.  And this position seems quite straighforward if you only stop to think and not move automaticly.

If white runs what will happen? Play is simple. Red will have no problems clearing 10-point. After that he can clear anchor and try to save gammon. White's only chance to gammon is roll doubles.

What if white plays fancy and makes 4-point? White is just waiting with his back checker so how on earth is red going to clear his five checkers without leaving shots. Practically every roll will give white chance to pick up more checkers and if red leaves the anchor there is good chance for closing the board. On top of that practically every roll is very hard to play for red. How will red play for example 6-5? Hit one blot, two or none? This looks like nightmare for red.

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