Position # 48

[PersianLord]

Position information:

Pip-Count: Red 80-35 White
Score:          Red 1-0 White
Match:                5-pointer

Red to move 1-1



Position ID: /74AACC2bWsAAA , Match ID: QYmkAAAACAAA

Red has managed to block the white's straggler behind a 6-pt prime, but what to with this doublet? The intermediate player, like me, most probably would roll one or two of his men into his home in order to close out white later, having in mind that his victory is guaranteed. But the sharp-eyed player will clearly take into consideration the white's single man on 22-pt. If red manage to hunt that miserable soldier, he will have reasonable chances to win a tasty gammon and win the match. So, in order to achieve this, red should hit loose the white's straggler and at the same time maintain his full prime: 2/1*-9/8-9/7. Now, if white rolls any 1-X or 2-X, in which X>2, he will hit a red's man and if red roll a 3 next roll, he will have about 13% chances to win a gammon and finish white off.

Besides, IMHO, hitting loose when you still have a full prime is almost always better than non-hitting moves.


    1. Cubeful 2-ply    9/7 9/8 2/1*                 Eq.:  +1.041
        93.4%  13.9%   0.3% -   6.6%   0.3%   0.0%   
   
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    9/6 8/7                      Eq.:  +0.936 ( -0.105)
        93.9%   6.1%   0.1% -   6.1%   0.1%   0.0%
     
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    9/5                          Eq.:  +0.923 ( -0.118)
        93.5%   5.9%   0.1% -   6.5%   0.1%   0.0%
     
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    9/6 9/8                      Eq.:  +0.909 ( -0.132)
        92.9%   6.1%   0.1% -   7.1%   0.1%   0.0%
       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    8/4                          Eq.:  +0.895 ( -0.146)
        92.7%   5.6%   0.1% -   7.3%   0.1%   0.0%