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Position # 56

Started by PersianLord, March 26, 2009, 07:54:28 PM

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Zorba

Quote from: PersianLord on March 26, 2009, 08:29:47 PM
Spoiler
It seems that stog is as aggressive as me. I played 13/7-10/4*(2)-8/2, hoping to take the sh** out of my opponent by winning a tasty gammon. But GNUBG favors the cowardly move of  13/7(4) and considers my (and stog's) move as a serious blunder (0.289). Here's GNUBG's 2-ply analysis:

    1. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7(4)                      Eq.:  +0.983
        82.3%   6.3%   0.0% -  17.7%   0.4%   0.0%

...       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7 10/4*(2) 8/2            Eq.:  +0.693 ( -0.289)
        71.2%  31.6%   0.3% -  28.8%   6.9%   0.3%

       
As you can see, GNUBG's move definitely wins much more simple wins than my move (82.3% versus 71.2%). Well, if it was a DMP game, I would have agreed with the bot, but it's the 1st game of a 5-pt match with the cube at center, so why not going for a tasty gammon?

GNUBG's move wins much less gammons (6.3% or 6.3/82.3% ?) than my move (31.6% or 31.6/71.2% ?). I think we can take the risk and play bold here.

Regards

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Spoiler
So, the safe play wins 11.1% more single games, equivalent to 0.222 equity in a cubeless money game.
Your bold play wins 25.3% more gammons, equivalent to 0.253 equity in a cubeless money game.

If GNUBG's estimates are correct, the bold play is slightly better in a cubeless money game.

The bold play might also be better if you had already doubled, although that is not clear right away. The extra single wins for opponent after the bold play, will increase his recube vig compared to after the quiet 13/7(4). I.e. opponent will get to offer more/stronger recubes after your bold play, because his chances of turning it around will be higher. The safe play might therefore be better even with oppponent holding a 2-cube, I think (interesting to check this with GNUBG).

At some scores and cube values where gammons are very valuable, the bold play will be best, but mostly when opponent's already been cubed before this play.

In this position however, the cube hasn't been turned, but you'll have great chances to cube next turn. If you go for the bold play and it works, it's probably a big pass, and therefore overkill. If the bold play gets hit back, you're in trouble. The safe play will nearly always give you a cash next turn and pretty efficient cube use.

So, this is an example of a checker play that is influenced by the cube (position) and where efficiency with regards to cube play is important.
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