Match 1, Game 1, Move 9, Forum Double

[blitzxz]

Black on roll. Cube?

Score: 0-0/5
Pips: Black(forum) 132 White(factotum) 132
GnuID: TN/AA0AztsEYIA:cAmgAAAAAAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

this time it seems we should cash in..what do you think?

[close]

[playBunny]

Spoiler

I don't think it's enough for a cash. We have the advantage and the threat of more but there are plenty of rolls where we can't do anything overwhelming. Our blitz potential is limited by lack of builders and we could do with hitting factotum's 5-point blot to give us more time to rally the troops. Failing that we then have to get our backrunner out and the rear anchor past his midpoint. That's plenty of opportunity for us to get foobared so I'd say it's double/take.

[close]

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

It's a double, not sure if it's a take. I probably wouldn't take this at 0-0. There are enough gammon chances lurking here, though not enough to make this too good to cube.

[close]

[diane]

Oh good - I can reply now 

Spoiler

I voted to double again - and hope I will finally get my way    I agree that I would be extremely unlikely to take this - which is why I would have done it a move ago at least

[close]

[Zorba]

Spoiler

A powerful double now.

It's probably not immediately clear whether this is still a take, and by the Woolsey Rule that makes it clear double.

On second look, it must still be a take I think. We have a good advantage here, but it's still just a three point board we have, with important points missing: the four and five.

Also, we don't have builders positioned well to make these points right away. Our front position is statically strong, but lacks in dynamics. To improve we might need to break up assets and leave shots.

Also, the race is still close, we still have a backman to escape and after that we still have to safely clear our outfield and midpoints, and even after that, we might get hit... we are a very long way from being "gin"!

We have some decent gammon chances, but we haven't hit the second blot yet, and more importantly, there's still three open points for factotum to enter. He will have plenty of time to enter one or two checkers from the bar and anchor, quite often.

So... don't give away free points by dropping this.

Worth noting here might also be that factotum is on the bar, which is easy to play usually! We, on the other hand, might have tricky decisions as to how aggressive we're gonna be attacking, making points, hitting loose, going for the gammon, etc. By taking, fact would give us a chance to make errors here.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Cash

Bob

[stog]

Spoiler

very interesting.great commenting.....maybe zorba will psyche a take from factotum

[close]

[playBunny]

Cube analysis.

Spoiler

It's an odd-ply/even-ply disagreement with a wide swing.
_______________________________________

2-ply cubeless equity  +0.530 (Money:  +0.544)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.903
2. Double, pass         +1.000  (+0.097)
3. No double             +0.694  (-0.210)
Proper cube action: Double, take

4-ply cubeless equity  +0.529 (Money:  +0.543)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.915
2. Double, pass         +1.000  (+0.085)
3. No double             +0.687  (-0.228)
Proper cube action: Double, take
_______________________________________

3-ply cubeless equity  +0.578 (Money:  +0.593)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.023  (+0.023)
3. No double             +0.739  (-0.261)
Proper cube action: Double, pass


Rollout 2-ply, 1296 trials, cubeless equity  +0.582 (Money:  +0.578)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.078  (+0.078)
3. No double             +0.752  (-0.248)

Proper cube action: Double, pass

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

very interesting.great commenting.....maybe zorba will psyche a take from factotum

[close]

Spoiler

It would take more than that to get me to take this

[close]

[NIHILIST]

I'd run a credit check on the guy who takes.

Bob

[NIHILIST]

I probably should have posted this earlier, but it's worth doing now and provides an easy indicator for beginners and intermediates in forming decisions in positions like this.

A great tourney player years ago used THE THREE Ps to determine cube decisions in mid-games.

The 3 Ps are PIPS, PRIME and POSITION. If you're on roll and thinking of doubling, you should have the advantage in at least 2 of the 3 categories. It's pretty obvious that black has the edge in 2, plus the PIPS ( count ) are even, so, double.

White only has one of the 3 going for him.........the even race. He has nothing approaching a PRIME and his POSITION is clearly inferior, especially that blot that might get him gammoned, so, PASS.

Hope this helps and adds to your bg toolbox.


Bob

[diane]

I know this as PRT, position, race and threat.  It amounts to a similar thing, and is very useful.

[Zorba]

With taking losing 0.08 according to the rollout, it's probably good to pass it even if the doubling player is likely to make (more) errors from here.

I might need to re-adjust my blitz takes away from gnubg's overly optimistic evaluations. I think I've seen that happen more often, gnubg taking blitz doubles that are passes on rollouts.

Good example of why you should do rollouts of reasonably close doubles and/or takes.