Match 1, Game 1, Move 10, Factotum cube

[blitzxz]

Take or pass?

[diane]

Spoiler

I think I already said what I would do - and Zorba didnt persuade me any different 

But I might sit here and do the silent 'take take take' chant that I sometimes do, when I would like my opponent to take it 

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

For what it's worth I would take this. Some factors that might influence that.
Black has two checkers out of play on the ace and has already made his 3pt. This points to a blitz being his main winning path, but his checkers aren't well placed for that yet.
The race is even.
There's a lot of skill left in this and a long way to go. Owning the cube at 0-0 to 5 is worth a lot, because the recube to 4 is so powerful.
I accept that this is a very strong double and that rollouts may even show it to be a pass, but I would certainly have taken it quite happily over the board. Make him work for it I say!

[close]

[playBunny]

[...] and that rollouts may even show [...]

The rollout is in the Forum Double thread.

[factotum]

I'm gonna take my 42.255% match equity into game 2, thank you.   Pass.

[factotum]

Meaning, in case you don't know, that, behind 1-0 in a 5pt match the trailer has 42.5% match winning chances.  (so we are told by the creator of gnu's match equity table)

In the early 1980's I frequented a bg club in the Georgetown section of DC, and encountered a fellow named Kent Goulding who had a standing offer to spot anyone 1pt in a 5pt match for $100.    Lucky for him that was a bit beyond my gambling budget at the time.