Match 1, Game 2, Move 4, factotum

[blitzxz]

3-2?

Score:
Black(forum) 1, White 0, match to 5

Pips:
Black 135 White 154

GnuID:
xp6DASjgc+IDQA:MIGpAAAACAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

After the forced bar-22, I would be a bit nervous at this point and not want to risk making any new blots, or further stack the 6 point. I would therefore move 10-8 - although it leaves a pretty inflexible position.  I hope someone has a better move and some good advice for me on this one.

[close]

[factotum]

bar 22,  13-11.  with your vastly superior 3pt board, i have to take a chance.  if you hit an outfield blot that will take your whole roll,  and i will have anchor/ return shot possibilities.

[ah_clem]

We should think about doubling here.  I haven't formed an opinion yet as to whether it's correct or not, but it's worth polling.  It's definitely a stop and think before rolling moment...

[Zorba]

Spoiler

factotum is in trouble here, despite entering his checker from the bar. He is clearly behind in the race, his lonely backchecker is on a vulnerable point and he has no development whatsoever. Meanwhile, we now have a three point board including the fivepoint, plus the eightpoint and builders/attackers, and split backcheckers. factotum can't take any chances here with 13/11, creating even more indirect shot numbers and adding another blot. 10/8 is called for.

[close]

[playBunny]

Spoiler

I would once have done 13/11 but I've seen Gnubg play safe time and again in positions like this. While it seemed to be a "wimping out" kind of move, I've come to appreciate that it's better to lose flexibility than get blitzed. With two blots in the outer table and one in our three-point home we would have no hesitation in hitting with any of the 30/36 rolls that would allow it.

[close]

[ah_clem]

About the cube action....

Spoiler

Double.
PRAT.  Position, Race and threats.  If you're ahead in two out of the three, it's a usually a double. 

We've got a three point board, plus active builders, vs a one point board for factorum. We clearly have a better position.
We're ahead by 15 pips, so we're ahead in the race.
And we've got three blots to choose from, with no real threats against us.

That's three for three. If you start ticking off the possible rolls, only 66  plays poorly, and that's are not too bad.  55, 53, 33 and 22 are devastating, so there are market losers here.  64 63 54 and 53 probably lose market too, depending on the return roll.

Too good?  I'm not seeing that we're that far ahead.  But we might be next roll if we sit on the cube this time.
So, I say turn the cube.

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

I agree, turn the cube!   

[close]

socksey



"Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification but through fidelity to a worthy purpose." - Helen Keller