Match 1, Game 2, Move 5, Forum Double

[ah_clem]

But still confused with the next one, I don't give a hoot where the equity is if I still lose, despite being the favourite to win.  I will stomp if that happens    So, I don't get any happiness from him taking what is a pass and then 'pulling an adrian'  and winning anyway.  So, if there are things to go wrong for us, then letting him get an extra bunch of points for a stroke of luck aren't my idea of fun.

Well, nobody gets much happiness when their opponent takes an incorrect cube and comes back to win.   But you have to balance that out against the number of times he takes incorrectly and doesn't come back to win, and add in the number of times he not only doesn't come back but gets gammoned to boot.  Make sure you count the ones in the latter category twice.  Those double- and quadruple- wins outweigh the occasional double-loss.

Overall, you're ahead with your opponent's  incorrect take, but you should expect to be beaten occasionally. 

[Zorba]

If your opponent takes a pass, you should be very happy with that! And it's an extra incentive to double!

Sure, he might turn the game around occasionally, but he can also do that if you don't double now, so it's not as bad as it seems.

We are big favourites to win here though, with pretty high gammon chances too. If factotum takes, the most likely outcome is that we win 2 points instead of 1. Sometimes we even win 4 points (and the match) instead of 2, with a doubled gammon. And then also, sometimes, we lose; most likely 2 points. That's all in the game. What matters is the average outcome in the long run, not the few unlucky "adrians" you'll get  Since we're big favourites in this game for now, we'd like it a lot if we can raise the stakes.

In general, it's a very bad thing to let fear influence your doubling decisions. You'll do much better by taking the opportunistic view. When considering a double, look at the glass as half full, not half empty. It's all those wins and gammons you want for double points. The occasional losses or nasty recubes you'll get don't offset the big gains in the long run from doubling positions like these.

Quick example with numbers: suppose we win the game 2/3 of the time here. Suppose half of these wins are gammons, the other half just single wins. That means we win single 1/3 of the time and a gammon 1/3 of the time, and lose 1/3 of the time.

Th average or expected outcome without any cube (cubeless) would then be:

1/3 * +1 =  1/3 (single win, no gammon)
1/3 * +2 =  2/3 (gammon win)
1/3 * -1 = -1/3 (single loss)
---------------+
                2/3 points (this is also called cubeless equity)

A pass is 1 point, so we obviously gain from cube access here.

A double/take would double all values, and give us 4/3 points, or 1 1/3, so that's even better than getting a pass!

It's unfortunately not as easy as this, since if we don't double we can still double later, and if we double and factotum takes, he can redouble us later. The result is that the values are all closer to 1, but the idea is still the same: You win less than one point if you don't cube, you win exactly one point after double/pass, and you win more than one point after double/take, on average (i.e. in the long run).

P.S. About being too good here: you can't compare playing on for the gammon, with a double/take which of course also causes the play to continue. The difference is obviously that the cube will be on 2 after a double/take, which is very beneficial to us, as explained above.

Furthermore, as ah_clem explained, gammon wins over single wins are usually only about half as valuable as single wins over single losses.

[adrian]

So, I don't get any happiness from him taking what is a pass and then 'pulling an adrian'   and winning anyway.  So, if there are things to go wrong for us, then letting him get an extra bunch of points for a stroke of luck aren't my idea of fun.

I thought that pulling adrians was mookie's specialty.

That's all in the game. What matters is the average outcome in the long run, not the few unlucky "adrians" you'll get 

Do you speak about me here ? Am I already famous for my bad takes followed by incredibile luck?

[diane]

Do you speak about me here ? Am I already famous for my bad takes followed by incredible luck?

Hehehehe, I wondered when you find you are famous    It isn't so much the bad takes and incredible good luck, as maybe you have a good eye for when the tide is going your way 

[lewscannon]

Do you speak about me here ? Am I already famous for my bad takes followed by incredibile luck?

My comment had nothing to do with backgammon.