Match 1, Game 3, Move 2, Forum

[blitzxz]

4-3?

Score:
Black(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Black 166 White 158

GnuID:
yPPgASTgc+QBUA:cAmuAAAAEAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

double hit

[close]

!

[Zorba]

Spoiler

The choice can quickly be narrowed down to the solid B/21* 24/21, hitting one and getting an advanced anchor, or B/21* 6/3* hitting two. Since we're far ahead in the race with this hit, and have the advantage and initiative all over the board, there's not much need for an anchor right now. We should capitalize on our initiative and superior position by hitting twice. This will prevent factotum from an easy way to stabilizing the position by making an anchor himself, and since he'll need his full roll to come off the bar, we're likely to keep the initiative so we can do more harm next turn! Getting hit back would not be a big deal, since factotum is in no position to succesfully attack us.

[close]

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

Hit him twice! He's got no board as of yet, and I'm in a bloodthirsty mood.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

24/21* 13/10
Put a checker on the roof and bring down a builder.
Hitting the 21 pt blot is automatic. 

Bringing down a builder seems both safer and more likely to build a blocade than slotting the bar point.


EDIT: oops- didn't see the checker on the bar.  Was wondering about all the "illegal" moves. 

I see the choice between a bold play - bar/21* 6/3* and a safe play - bar/21* 24/21.  Hit twice or make an anchor.  Over the board, I would tend to play it safe, especially at this match score.  Hitting twice is probably better, but not for the faint of heart.

I voted for bar/21* 13/10, but that's only because I puffed reading the diagram. Oh well. 

[close]

[playBunny]

Spoiler

24/21* 13/10
Put a checker on the roof and bring down a builder.
Hitting the 21 pt blot is automatic. 

Bringing down a builder seems both safer and more likely to build a blocade than slotting the bar point.


EDIT: oops- didn't see the checker on the bar.  Was wondering about all the "illegal" moves. 

That was my thinking too because I didn't see the blot on the bar either. The board colours are a poor choice here, although probably fine for playing at home where the board size is as large as desired and one is used to playing a game in flow. I was going to vote 24/21* 13/10 on the assumption that it was a typo that should have been 13/9. Fortunately I've got the match in GnuBg so that I can do rollouts and I saw a bright yellow checker on my green bar and was thus corrected.

I'm going against the vote on this one. For me there's no question but to make the anchor, bar/21* 24/21. The 6/3* just didn't appeal; it felt too "scrappy", in both senses of the word. Maybe that's because I've just lost a first round match in a Vog tourney and am not in a fighting mood!

[close]

[stog]

if you click the attached pic, it gets bigger

[ah_clem]

if you click the attached pic, it gets bigger

I did click the image to make it bigger and I still didn't see the brown checker on the brown bar.  I suppose the fact that all the options started with "bar/" should have been a dead giveaway...

[diane]

I did click the image to make it bigger and I still didn't see the brown checker on the brown bar.  I suppose the fact that all the options started with "bar/" should have been a dead giveaway...

Yup but, we all miss the obvious now and then 

I too voted for the double hit - although I didn't post as my lunchtime today was rather hurried.  For pretty much all the reasons stated above - i would very much like to gammon this game, and that seemed a good way to head in that direction. 

[I pointed out that I voted hours and hours ago, just so Lews doesnt think I am following him, again ]

[socksey]

Yup  but, we all miss the obvious now and then 

Not so obvious!     That happened to me once, too.     Maybe we should think of changing the colors of the board or the chips. 

I vote double hit even before I read stog's first response! 

socksey



"Tyranny always arrives to a hero's welcome, demanding unlimited power to 'defend' the people it will enslave." - Carl D. Veley

[Zorba]

GnuBG 0/2-ply rollout:

Spoiler

Oops... The double hit looks like a fairly big error here!

At a "normal" matchscore (or a money session), the double hit would likely be a small error. It wins more gammons, but also loses more gammons, and it wins less games overall.

At this matchscore, where we need only 3 points to win whereas factotum needs 5, gammons become less valuable to us, and more valuable to factotum. That makes the gammonish double-hit even less attractive.

(If the score were reversed, factotum 2-0 ahead, with the team needing five points and factotum only three, the double hit might be correct.)


    1. Rollout          bar/21* 24/21                Eq.:  +0,1762
        55,47  16,16   1,95 -  44,53   9,29   0,45 CL  +0,1444 CF  +0,1762
      [  0,14   0,18   0,14 -   0,14   0,09   0,05 CL   0,0041 CF   0,0085]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819749348 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          bar/21* 6/3*                 Eq.:  +0,1034 ( -0,0728)
        54,13  18,02   2,52 -  45,87  11,08   0,57 CL  +0,1147 CF  +0,1034
      [  0,13   0,16   0,15 -   0,13   0,10   0,05 CL   0,0043 CF   0,0085]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819749348 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[socksey]

Can I change my vote now?    

socksey



"None of us is as smart as all of us." - Ken Blanchard

[playBunny]

 
Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply for 12 plies, 0-ply thereafter, 2-ply cube throughout

Spoiler

This 2-ply rollout agrees with Zorba's 0-ply rollout but thinks that the double-hit 
is less of an error although, at 0.056, it's still bad by top rated standards. 
All other moves are way off.
 
# .. Move ............ Equity . (Diff) ... Win .... WinG ... WinBg -- Lose ... LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. bar/21* 24/21 ... +0.174 ............ 55.5% .. 15.1% ... 1.3% -- 44.5% ... 9.2% ... 0.4%
2 .. bar/21* 6/3* .... +0.118 (-0.056) ... 54.5% .. 17.3% ... 2.5% -- 45.5% .. 10.9% ... 0.5%
3 .. bar/21* 11/8 .... +0.068 (-0.106) ... 53.8% .. 16.2% ... 1.7% -- 46.2% .. 11.1% ... 0.6%
4 .. bar/21* 13/10 ... +0.039 (-0.135) ... 52.9% .. 16.0% ... 2.2% -- 47.1% .. 11.5% ... 0.6%
5 .. bar/21*/18 ...... +0.028 (-0.146) ... 53.2% .. 14.3% ... 1.5% -- 46.8% .. 12.1% ... 0.6%
Std Err ............... 0.011 ............. 0.2% ... 0.3% ... 0.2% --- 0.2% ... 0.1% ... 0.0%
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858100959 and quasi-random dice
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
  Different evaluations after 12 plies:
  Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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