Match 1, Game 3, Move 8, factotum cube&checker

[blitzxz]

Double or not?

Score:
Green(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 123 White 171

GnuID:
Os6YGQCwbfAAQw:AQGgAAAAEAAA

[Zorba]

Spoiler

I'm not happy with the coin toss play  but I'd be happy if factotum redoubled here. It's a huge take now, so he needs many small or some big market-losers (or some combo) to have a reason to redouble here. Getting hit (12/36) would obviously be bad for us, but if we enter in a decent way it looks like a take to me. If we dance (4/36), we're in serious trouble. But it doesn't look like a huge pass (say worse than -1.4) to me. So, few market losing sequences (hit dance is 1/27, around 4%) and they don't look like HUGE market losers, so no redouble.

[close]

[factotum]

No double.

[NIHILIST]

Now there's an interesting strategy, using our confusion and indecision to induce him to redouble.


Bob

[blitzxz]

6-2?

[Zorba]

Spoiler

At least that 6-2 would've hit after the other play as well!  Looks obvious: B/23* 13/7 get an attack/builder in pace to contain our new&improved backman.

[close]

[factotum]

A good roll...  bar-23*,  13-7.

[diane]

Spoiler

Yup, nothing else to do with that 6 that is sensible, other than to bring it to where it will be useful - 13-7.  I see that we would have got hit either way, but sure wish he were hitting by splitting that 21pt anchor 

[close]

[playBunny]

Yup, nothing else to do with that 6 that is sensible, other than to bring it to where it will be useful - 13-7.  I see that we would have got hit either way, but sure wish he were hitting by splitting that 21pt anchor 

As it was a 2-6 and he wouldn't have been on the bar, he'd had leapt out with the backrunner on our 2-point.

[diane]

As it was a 2-6 and he wouldn't have been on the bar, he'd had leapt out with the backrunner on our 2-point.

Oh yeah     

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

At least that 6-2 would've hit after the other play as well! 

62 is the one roll that would allows him to hit and maintain his anchor, had we made the other play.

Sometimes you're just doomed no matter what you do.  (c:

[close]

[Zorba]

GnuBG 2-4-ply on factotum's redouble:

Spoiler

Too early for a recube, but it's not so far off anymore (no blunder to redouble):

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  -0,0963 (Money:  -0,1640)
   43,53  10,95   0,25 -  56,47  14,39   0,27
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0,2347
2. Double, pass         +1,0000  ( +0,7653)
3. Double, take         +0,1530  ( -0,0817)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (9,6%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity  -0,0388 (Money:  -0,1091)
   45,73  11,39   0,27 -  54,27  13,65   0,39
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0,3123
2. Double, pass         +1,0000  ( +0,6877)
3. Double, take         +0,2553  ( -0,0570)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (7,7%)

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity  -0,0889 (Money:  -0,1570)
   44,04  10,90   0,27 -  55,96  14,66   0,29
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0,2597
2. Double, pass         +1,0000  ( +0,7403)
3. Double, take         +0,1746  ( -0,0851)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (10,3%)

[close]