Match 1, Game 3, Move 15, Forum

[blitzxz]

5-5?

Score:
Green(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 107 White 143

GnuID:
zG1gBgPb2AwMBA:Uom2AAAAEAAA

[Zorba]

Spoiler

21/1, what else? We can't afford to leave the backman stranded, and we can't afford to leave a lot of shots.

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[diane]

Spoiler

Well, the back man is coming out - and he cant stop at 16 or 11, when he is at 6, there is only one left...so the only safe play is to take him to the 1, and I don't want to do anything that isn't safe with this 'Backwoods special'  

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[NIHILIST]

It's a gift, grab it.

Bob

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

I agree lets run.  We are ahead in the race.  We dont need to leave shots.  We be able to pull in from the 7 point to avoid leaving shots later. Good development.  BTW i really think factum had to nail us back there..i mean he doesnt lose gammon.  This has been a rather good sequence for us.

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[diane]

This has been a rather good sequence for us

I hope you are hugging a huge tree at the same time you are making bold statements like that   

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Tempting as it is to make the 4 point and have a 5 point board (21/11 9/4(2)), making that play removes a landing spot for our checkers on the 15 and leaves our runner subject to a double shot.  Now is not for to be the time of the leaving of the blots!     21/1.  Run like hell!

Now, we're still faced with clearing the 15 point, and it looks like we'll be forced to leave a shot before factorum does.  So we're not out of the woods yet...

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[stog]

wow a 11 vote consensus!

[factotum]

my last play was presuming you would finally leave a shot.  which you never do.   go ahead with  your 3rd roll in a roll lucky dice heads.......

[roadkillbooks]

I hope you are hugging a huge tree at the same time you are making bold statements like that   

I am working on a hard wood table.  I rolled this game out a couple of times by hand after the 4-1 decision.  I KNOW this is going to get messy.  Thats why our assets are a total plus. (our 1 point).

[diane]

my last play was presuming you would finally leave a shot.  which you never do.   go ahead with  your 3rd roll in a roll lucky dice heads.......

[ah_clem]

my last play was presuming you would finally leave a shot.  which you never do. 

We never leave shots?  So we wound up on the bar by divine intervention? 

Shots will be left by both sides before long if I'm reading the position correctly, the question is who goes first...

[Zorba]

GnuBG rollout:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          21/1                         Eq.:  +0,1758
        61,07  15,92   0,38 -  38,93   6,87   0,84 CL  +0,1758
      [  0,12   0,22   0,11 -   0,12   0,13   0,13 CL   0,0027]
        Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
        1604 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeless prune
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Different evaluations after 6 plies:
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
    2. Rollout          21/6 9/4                     Eq.:  +0,1376 ( -0,0382)
        59,46  19,94   0,30 -  40,54   7,78   0,67 CL  +0,1376
      [  0,14   0,25   0,07 -   0,14   0,12   0,14 CL   0,0030]
        Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
        1603 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeless prune
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Different evaluations after 6 plies:
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune


Other moves are blunders...

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