Macth 1, Game 3, Move 16, factotum

[blitzxz]

2-3?

Score:
Green(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 87 White 143

GnuID:
t7EZGADMbWAGAw:EgGtAAAAEAAA

[factotum]

I was going to move both checkers off the 7pt, but that would stack two builders on the 5pt and all but force me to break an outfield point next roll.  I prefer swapping the 6pt for the 4pt with 7-4, 6-4.  The 6pt should be easy to remake and I have rolls to make the 2 or 1 point and keep all my outfield points.      7-4, 6-4.

[diane]

I considered that move - but so hate breaking the 6pt. I would therefore have probably gone 7-2, as, like you, I didn't like the 7-5 at all.

[ah_clem]

I considered that move - but so hate breaking the 6pt. I would therefore have probably gone 7-2, as, like you, I didn't like the 7-5 at all.

Hmmmm.  What's not to like about 7/5?  Of course, I like 15/12 13/11 even better.  (c:

[lewscannon]

This is turning into 'who's dice are going to flinch first', which is why I didn't want to turn down factotum's re-cube earlier. I might have considered 7-4, 5-3, to maybe make the 4 point, or another point in his board. it looks like we probably have one more roll before it's decision time for us, and if he can't make his 6 right away, that could be important.

[roadkillbooks]

I Dont like 7-5 since it leaves 2 builders on the same point.  Im also not a adament "save sixes" fan but the one piece on the 7 point will give lots more flexibility. I would not block the switch play...but i love my six point.  Keeping it makes me feel like im not a bot.  I kinda like 7/4, 5/3 but it break a fundamental rule..when it doubt DONT move an extra checker to the 3 point if you dont have to.  Although on the fly I do that kinda move more than i should.  So that leaves the 7/2 that diane first mentioned.

roadkillbooks

[Zorba]

GnuBG rollout:

Spoiler

Well done factotum!

Three moves very close here; 7/2 is an error though. Perhaps because it will be hard to make the essential fourpoint (quickly) after this? Every checker past the fourpoint is one less to make it with, and factotum doesn't have many builders ready. Hitting us is not enough, factotum is so far behind that he'll have to keep us on the bar for many rolls or effectively contain us.


    1. Rollout          7/4 6/4                      Eq.:  -0,1490
        39,97   7,76   0,74 -  60,03  19,09   0,39 CL  -0,1490
      [  0,12   0,14   0,12 -   0,12   0,21   0,08 CL   0,0025]
    2. Rollout          7/5 7/4                      Eq.:  -0,1547 ( -0,0057)
        39,81   7,38   0,85 -  60,19  18,22   0,51 CL  -0,1547
      [  0,12   0,14   0,12 -   0,12   0,21   0,10 CL   0,0026]
    3. Rollout          7/4 5/3                      Eq.:  -0,1591 ( -0,0101)
        39,65   7,23   0,89 -  60,35  19,84   0,40 CL  -0,1591
      [  0,12   0,13   0,16 -   0,12   0,21   0,06 CL   0,0026]
    4. Rollout          7/2                          Eq.:  -0,1872 ( -0,0383)
        38,39   6,76   0,58 -  61,61  20,06   0,45 CL  -0,1872
      [  0,11   0,12   0,11 -   0,11   0,22   0,09 CL   0,0025]
    5. Rollout          20/15                        Eq.:  -0,2069 ( -0,0579)
        37,41   6,77   0,41 -  62,59  24,66   0,23 CL  -0,2069
      [  0,12   0,13   0,09 -   0,12   0,26   0,07 CL   0,0026]
    6. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  -0,2145 ( -0,0655)
        37,08   6,62   0,79 -  62,92  21,75   0,52 CL  -0,2145
      [  0,12   0,12   0,15 -   0,12   0,23   0,12 CL   0,0025]
    7. Rollout          15/13 15/12                  Eq.:  -0,2641 ( -0,1151)
        35,00   5,41   0,42 -  65,00  21,35   0,24 CL  -0,2641
      [  0,11   0,11   0,08 -   0,11   0,22   0,09 CL   0,0024]

        Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
        1872 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeless prune
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Different evaluations after 6 plies:
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune

[close]