Match 1, Game 3, Move 18 Forum

[blitzxz]

6-4?

Score
Green(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 71 White 123

GnuID
2bYEBgO3lwMYAA:UgmzAAAAEAAA

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

This is what happens when you let Diane roll the dice. Ugly decision here. My thinking is moving the 6-2 leaves 2 direct shots, while the 15-11 leaves 3, and I will be peeking (and perhaps puking) at the next roll from between my fingers.

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[ah_clem]

Where are we going, and what are we doing in this handbasket?

Spoiler

By my count, moving both checkers leaves 29 hitting rolls.
15/9 6/2 leaves 23 hitting numbers, but will be harder to clean up if factorum misses. 

I'll go with the 36% chance we survive rather than the 19% chance. 15/9 6/2.

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[diane]

I never touched the dice!!  

Spoiler

Well, this is about as bad as it gets - are you sure you shook the dice after factotum rolled!!    Well - no idea, they both look horrid dont they! I think I am more tempted by the three shots, and less mess if we get away with it....but then I did the other one    Can I suggest we all spend some time visualising factotum rolling 66......

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

"By my count, moving both checkers leaves 29 hitting rolls.
15/9 6/2 leaves 23 hitting numbers, but will be harder to clean up if factorum misses."

With "safer" move we leave almost certainly another shot, possibly even more. So both checkers closer and it's roll for game/match.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

15/9 15/11, a few more shots but leaves a MUCH better position when missed. 15/11 6/2 will actually leave ANOTHER double direct shot next turn quite often, and is almost guaranteed to leave a single direct shot. We're paying now, might as well try to get some value for our money.

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[NIHILIST]

The correct play here is to drop.

Bob

[socksey]

Drat!  Couldn't get any icons to work or spoiler for me this morning, but I voted with Zorba on this one before any comments. 

socksey



"Fools live to regret their words, wise men to regret their silence." - Will Henry

[stog]

Spoiler

as zorba has noted - we get perhaps some value if......so i'm changing to 15/9 15/11 as one of the 2 hits -the six, is also the cover, but then again dubb6 is orrible!

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[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

I voted for moving both checkers up.  I like leaving the extra piece on the 6 point and not burying the checker.  We knew this was going to get messy.  We will need that extra time and option later... It should help us keep our board after we are hit.

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[diane]

Ok, I went with the brainboxes, so to avoid a coin toss  It was my first instinct after all, I just lost my bottle at the last minute 

[NIHILIST]

This is the point in the chouette when you excuse yourself to go to the men's room.............and never return.


Bob

[ah_clem]

Rollout

Spoiler

15/11 15/9  prevails, presumably because we're in much better shape  after he misses.  If I knew he was going to miss, I certainly would have voted for it.  (c:


    1. Rollout          15/11 15/9                   MWC:  45.56%
       0.347 0.126 0.004 - 0.653 0.222 0.006 CL  45.56% CF  45.56%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.11% CF   0.11%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856939712 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    2. Rollout          15/9 6/2                     MWC:  44.52% ( -1.04%)
       0.336 0.099 0.002 - 0.664 0.231 0.008 CL  44.52% CF  44.52%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.11% CF   0.11%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856939712 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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