Game 2, move 9, roadkillbooks doubles, Forum?

[Zorba]

roadkillbooks (white) doubles to 2, Forum (blue)?

651DAATDbjOEAA:MAGgABAAAAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

After all my previous comments, now we face the music, and I am ready for it, I take 

[close]

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Pass. I count 10 bad rolls for factotum: 6-1, 5-4, 5-2, 5-1, 4-1. And even in those factotum is surely a big favorite to win. We need to get out from bar and hopefully hit also. In most other rolls I think we're trampled. There are some gammons lurking also so we would be risking the whole match here. 2-0 isn't that bad. Race lead is big for us but I don't see how we could take advantage of it. To me double came one move too late.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

PASS This is one of the market losing sequences I was talking about in rkb's last cube decision.   15 rolls point on the head of the blot in his homeboard giving a 4 point board with  a checker on the bar.  With another blot hanging around, gammons are a big factor.  The blot in our homeboard gives him extra incentive to blitz.  Let's take the loss now and try again next game.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Pass. I count 10 bad rolls for factotum: 6-1, 5-4, 5-2, 5-1, 4-1.

Those aren't bad rolls.  Those are ok rolls, in contrast to all the others which are excellent rolls. He has no bad rolls here. Which is why I say pass. 26/36 rolls (~75%) he puts us away and threatens gammon. The other 10 we have a chance to escape with 65 55 or 45 (5 out of 36 or about 14%)  What does that make our winning chances?  Add in the fact that a gammon means we lose the match and I don't want to take the cube.

[close]

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Those aren't bad rolls.  Those are ok rolls, in contrast to all the others which are excellent rolls. He has no bad rolls here. Which is why I say pass. 26/36 rolls (~75%) he puts us away and threatens gammon. The other 10 we have a chance to escape with 65 55 or 45 (5 out of 36 or about 14%)  What does that make our winning chances?  Add in the fact that a gammon means we lose the match and I don't want to take the cube.

"Bad" is relative... I don't think those are truly bad but the worst here which is not bad at all.  I would by the way guess that rkb has 70-80 % winning chances and 15-20 % gammon chances... It's big pass in my mind too.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

Who were the other 'take' voters, I would like to hear their reasoning - since it seems I am alone here, in everything except the vote - where it is almost equal    Maybe we can persuade some minds to be changed.

[close]

[Zorba]

Spoiler

This sure looks very scary. All sorts of rolls point on us, others double hit and I guess every roll actually hits us, even if it's just a loose hit. We should have some decent winning chances though. We're far ahead in the race, so even if we get slapped around a bit, just one escaping number at some point and we're instant (strong) favourites. rkb made his acepoint already, which means he's got only 13 checkers left to contain us with, not an easy task usually, although he's well positioned.

Also, we got a strong homeboard ourselves, if we return-hit rkb he'll dance nearly 50% of the time, so that gives some opportunities. Anytime rkb hits loose we get a direct shot from the bar, other times we may get (several) indirects from the bar.

Then there's the gammon losses to worry about, there's a fair chance we'll get closed out, sometimes with two checkers.

How does it all add up? I found it a tough decision, but I passed. The roads that lead to a win seem very difficult, depending on some lucky parlays. And there's a considerable gammon risk, which is end of match at this score and highly efficient for rkb.

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

I'm counting on he rolls even numbers and our strong outer board contains him.     I voted take.  If he does hit us, we've still got a 50 50 chance of getting back in and we still have that strong outer board that he has to maneuver through.    

[close]

socksey



"Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone might be looking." - Henry Louis Mencken

[socksey]

Spoiler

I don't do equities.     I just count the advantages and decide by "look and feel".   

[close]

Now we need a tie breaker to decide.    

Hey, fibsboard wouldn't allow me to edit my first post this time.  What's up with that?   

socksey



There is nothing that cannot be done if we raise our voice as one. - Michael Jackson

[stog]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again, as rkb's mates have been hitting the take button  

[ah_clem]

Now we need a tie breaker to decide.    

How about this - nobody voting "take" bothered to explain their reasoning except diane, and what she said isn't really a "reason".

So, were this a choette, the captain would make the call, based on which choice is based on the best argument.  I think that's a reasonable course here, assuming the vote is still tied at the end of the voting period.

Note that a binary-decision (take-pass, double-no double) is unlikely to be resolved with an extended period.  For a checker play, the votes may be spread out amongst several moves and extending the voting period allows the people who voted for the third, fourth, etc. move to change their vote to one of the top two.  That's not the case with a take decision.

[playBunny]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again

Actually I do want to change my vote but there's no option to do so. I've got a rollout and so don't want to be voting on this one. I only voted to see which way the poll was going, intending to immediately remove it. Now my vote is stuck.

[stog]

how many want to change their vote, and more importantly from what to what?

[Zorba]

Spoiler

I'm counting on he rolls even numbers and our strong outer board contains him.    I voted take.  If he does hit us, we've still got a 50 50 chance of getting back in and we still have that strong outer board that he has to maneuver through.    

[close]

socks,did you notice we're blue? it's rkb with the strong blockade...

[Zorba]

If you want to change your vote, try again, it should work I think.

Personally, I'd recommend making your own decision, think about it as long as you think you need, then vote. I'm not sure changing the votes later is beneficial to the OLM, after all, isn't learning more important here than winning? The downside of changing your vote later is that you may never really make the decision yourself, and bascially let others (or bots even) decide for you. In my experience, you learn most by doing the best you can on your own, voting, explaining your move if you want, and then (sometimes) find out you were horribly wrong. Maybe it hurts to be very wrong, but that's when you might learn something you won't forget. Also, you might be right sometimes when everyone disagrees with you, and by changing your vote, you'll lose that great moment. 

[roadkillbooks]

I also don't think voting should be extended.  Two days to vote is sufficient.  We obviously want lots of people to participate but we also want this to remain dynamic for those that are participating regularly.  Im also curious to how the vote is going.  I take from the posts that there is a tie.  Playbunny says he wants to change his vote....or remove/recuse herhimself becausee she/he say the rollout.....

Ive just been shaking the dice for several days now and I want to let them fly in this game or the next.

[playBunny]

If you want to change your vote, try again, it should work I think.

Thanks.

Personally, I'd recommend making your own decision,

I agree - except when the vote is deadlocked.

I'm not sure changing the votes later is beneficial to the OLM

Wikipedia: The olm, or proteus (Proteus anguinus), is a blind amphibian endemic to the subterranean waters of caves of the Dinaric karst of southern Europe.

I think it depends on what's being voted for. If it's the use of the olm's caves as a source of drinking water and the deplection rate would be greater than the refill rate then a change of heart followed by a change of vote could be very beneficial to the olm. 

In my experience, you learn most by ....

Yep, I agree with this, too.

I also don't think voting should be extended.  Two days to vote is sufficient.

Vote extensions are only necessary when the vote is tied. An extension for further discussion is more satisfying than having the vote decided randomly, especially for any who were happy to change their vote in the opposite direction to the forced decision.

[diane]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again, as rkb's mates have been hitting the take button  

I do think being able to change your mind is critical here. 
That is what is different about playing this match - we are learning from it.  We say what we think and others state their case.  If we can see the logic behind the opposite or different view and change our mind to the better decision - that is how we will learn..
Doing what we have always done and sticking with it teaches no one anything...

And it is precisely because it isn't about winning, but about learning, that we have all this discussion and then the rollout discussion post move.  If we can't respond to the discussion, then why bother?

In the event of a tied vote, then it is even more important - we need a way to make our decision without coin flips.  I am not sure a great deal of time extension is necessary, but changing votes according to how the team members have debated should be the way to get by the deadlocks.

[socksey]

socks,did you notice we're blue? it's rkb with the strong blockade...

Yes, but if he rolls even dice, he prolly won't hit us.  That's what I mean.     I stand by my original vote.   

socksey



They say the sky's the limit, and to me that is really true. - Michael Jackson

[ah_clem]

Yes, but if he rolls even dice, he prolly won't hit us.  That's what I mean.     I stand by my original vote.   

22 42 44 62 66 all point on our head.  So does 32 and 43. 


What are these even dice of which you speak that prevent him from hitting us?

[Zorba]

Just for clarification: It's great to discuss the moves here and get rollouts etc., that's the learning experience for me. Great if someone can persuade you that an other move or cube decision would've been better. Being able to change your vote afterwards does not really add much to that, in my experience. I think it might sometimes make people's initial votes (and thought processes) lazier. In normal backgammon, you also get only once chance to decide, and also, you have to determine how much time (and energy) to spend on that decision (apart for clocks or impatient opponents  ). If you know you can always change your vote later, it might not benefit your original vote decision, and could therefore be less of a learning experience. Also, it can be interesting for certain positions to see what people's original choices were, it teaches you something about which kind of decisions are the hardest in backgammon.

Just my 2 cents... I don't really mind how people vote, it's up to each to decide for themselves.

And now, I'm gonna NEXT this particular decision...   

[diane]

In normal backgammon, you also get only once chance to decide

And that sums it up, this is NOT normal backgammon, here we have the chance to do something different, to think differently - to hear the voice of others and respond if we wish.  That is why this is so much more valuable than playing a 100 games where our own decisions are final.

[playBunny]

 
Rollout 3888  trials, 2-ply throughout

Spoiler

1 .. Double, take ..... 0.992
2 .. Double, pass ..... 1.000 .. (+0.008)
3 .. No double ........ 0.703 .. (-0.289)
 
Proper cube action: Double, take
But, given the size of the error standard deviation (0.006), take and pass are pretty much the same. 
 
Centered 1-cube:
   68.4%  14.5%   0.6% -  31.6%   9.1%   0.2% CL  +0.462 CF  +0.703
 [  0.1%   0.1%   0.1% -   0.1%   0.1%   0.0% CL   0.002 CF   0.004]
Forum owns 2-cube:
   69.2%  16.2%   1.8% -  30.8%   9.5%   0.3% CL  +1.206 CF  +0.992
 [  0.1%   0.1%   0.1% -   0.1%   0.1%   0.0% CL   0.005 CF   0.006]
 
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863121964 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

Proper cube action: Double, take
But, given the size of the error standard deviation (0.006), take and pass are pretty much the same.

[close]

Well, that is well reflected in the closeness of the vote 

But once again  I was right    I need better words to try and persuade you lot 

[blitzxz]

So it's another borderline. Very efficient doubling by roadkillbooks! I would have made major error by doubling too early. It's also surprise to me that we should able to win over 30 % games. I just can't see how that's happening.

[Zorba]

And another rollout to chime in, nearly identical settings:

Spoiler

A huge double, and take/drop is too close to call, a true borderline decision according to GnuBG:

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube (No double):
   68,38  14,59   0,62 -  31,62   9,15   0,22 CL  +0,4634 CF  +0,7043
[  0,06   0,10   0,05 -   0,06   0,09   0,01 CL   0,0018 CF   0,0034]
Player FIBSBoard forum owns 2-cube (Double, take):
   69,29  16,15   1,69 -  30,71   9,66   0,30 CL  +1,2046 CF  +0,9947
[  0,07   0,14   0,15 -   0,07   0,08   0,04 CL   0,0051 CF   0,0061]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863038590 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0,2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[socksey]

But once again    I was right    I need better words to try and persuade you lot   

Well, maybe me, too!   

Cheers, diane!

socksey



"The consequences of our crimes long survive their commission, and, like the ghosts of the murdered, forever haunt the steps of the malefactor" - Sir Walter Scott

[stog]

good voting by all

[adrian]

Hi all,

I was the moron who voted in 10th of july at about 18PM for take, when the score was 6-5 in favour of a pass. All was because I am not very used to play having homeboard at my left side. I always play with the homeboards on the right side of the board.
Sorry guys, even for me (as dumb lucky as I am) it is a pass, so I tried today to withdraw my initial vote for the take. It didn't worked 

[diane]

Sorry guys, even for me (as dumb lucky as I am) it is a pass, so I tried today to withdraw my initial vote for the take.

No, it was a take - the bot showed that.  Whatever happened with your vote, it didn't affect anything, it stayed 6-5 to pass - and so we passed 

[diane]

Well, maybe me, too!   

Yes, us girls knew which was the right way - we need to get them boys paying more attention   

[playBunny]

No, it was a take - the bot showed that. 

Strictly speaking what the bot showed is that it's about 90% likely that the equity for taking is better for us than dropping and 10% that it's not. (That's going by my rollout. Zorba's indicates that it's more even). This is given by the standard deviation of error that the bot reports (the 0.006 that I highlighted in the rollout) along with the equity (0.992). It's a measure of how accurate the equity is. The lower the standard deviation of error the more likely the true equity is to be close by. A "standard error" of 0.006 isn't that low but it's not too bad in this situation given that we are comparing one estimated equity with a defined one (dropping = -1.000). When comparing two close moves, each with an estimated equity, the standard error would preferably be smaller still to give greater confidence in the gap reported between the moves.

That's the stats of the matter but the facts of the matter are that a difference of 0.008 is dwarfed by other, incalculable, factors such as how well we'd expect ourselves and our opponent to handle the game scenario that follows a take.

[diane]

That's the stats of the matter but the facts of the matter are that a difference of 0.008 is dwarfed by other, incalculable, factors such as how well we'd expect ourselves and our opponent to handle the game scenario that follows a take.

Or - a borderline take, in a nutshell. 

And why all this ongoing negativity around our performance - results so far indicate the forum more often than not finds the right moves.  And it would happen even more, if you only payed more attention to me 

[playBunny]

Or - a borderline take, in a nutshell.

What do you want nutshells for when you can waffle on for paragraph after paragraph? (You should see the version of the post that I whittled down to leave that wee morsel! ;-) One day I shall do a web page about GnuBg's standard deviations of error and j.s.ds. Just as soon as I fully understand them.  )

And why all this ongoing negativity around our performance

Ah, that's interesting. Did you read my neutral statement and see a negative judgment about ourselves and perhaps also a positive one about our opponent? Hmmmm..... Lie on this couch here and tell me about your childhood.

results so far indicate the forum more often than not finds the right moves.

But you're right. If we take away our bloops and blunders then we're putting on a World Class performance! 

And it would happen even more, if you only payed more attention to me 

Well, you've certainly got me rapt around your little finger. 

[diane]

 I really only have one over riding sentiment with regard to that post............   



Ok, it seems I read more into what you were saying about our performance than you actually said, can I just put it down to a very early start at work this morning 

I do feel there are enough contributers and enough discussion that the forum is getting to the right moves in these matches, and that like any good world class player, we should be playing to the numbers not superstition about potential errors 

[playBunny]

I really only have one over riding sentiment with regard to that post............   

Well, I was rather more interested in exploring your mind and thinking processes but if you want me to check your tongue .... say Ahhhhh.

I do feel there are enough contributers and enough discussion that the forum is getting to the right moves in these matches, and that like any good world class player, we should be playing to the numbers not superstition about potential errors 

Superstition?! Would you care to place a small wager on us and roadblockskill playing GnuBg-perfectly for the rest of the match?

Actually, over on bgonline.org, you will hear world class players talking about taking their opponent's skill level into account. 

[diane]

I think we better finish this conversation over a match sometime 

[roadkillbooks]

Actually, over on bgonline.org, you will hear world class players talking about taking their opponent's skill level into account. 

I was hoping for the drop.  While I obviously had good chances my situation had begun to go down hill and I could see a fast redouble under a number of scenarios.  Snowie on mini-rollout says this is a take and the drop was a -.11 error.  I think I didnt really have any gammon potential.  Forum probally had about as high gammon possibilities as I did so the take comes down to raw winning chances. 
I don't think one has to be world class to take skill level into account.  Many people clearly do different cube actions based on playing different people.  This makes complete sense and is correct.  Cube action is based on match equities so while say 3away, 3away is 50% winning chances....well if you are playing a very weak opponent,  Your winning chances at 3away, 3away are higher than 50%.maybe let's say 60%.  This totally changes what is a take/drop at prior match scores.  The same is true the other way around. I think some sort player based strategy should always be used.  One can always revert back to "normal" if one considers the opponent an equal.
Anyway compared to what cube errors can look like.. this was small.